{ "tool": { "name": "called-it", "version": "1.0.0" }, "run": { "name": "doll", "subject": { "name": "Bob Doll", "kind": "person", "website": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com", "x_handles": [], "domains": [ "macro", "rates", "equities", "earnings", "sectors", "regions", "politics" ] }, "target_year": 2026, "season_window": { "start": "2025-10-01", "end": "2026-01-31" }, "evidence_window": { "start": "2026-01-01", "end": "2026-10-24" }, "thresholds": { "yes": 0.7, "no": 0.3, "min_strength": 1.0 } }, "grader_models": { "jev-1.14.0": 168 }, "aggregate": { "per_bar": { "strict": { "met": 3, "not_met": 6, "unresolved": 5, "resolved": 9, "hit_rate": 0.333, "hit_rate_all": 0.214 }, "standard": { "met": 4, "not_met": 5, "unresolved": 5, "resolved": 9, "hit_rate": 0.444, "hit_rate_all": 0.286 }, "lenient": { "met": 5, "not_met": 3, "unresolved": 6, "resolved": 8, "hit_rate": 0.625, "hit_rate_all": 0.357 } }, "generosity_gap": 0.143, "ladder": { "c1": "not_met", "c2": "met:strict", "c3": "not_met", "c4": "met:strict", "c5": "not_met", "c6": "met:strict", "c7": "not_met", "c8": "met:lenient", "c9": "not_met", "c10": "met:standard", "c11": "unresolved", "c12": "unresolved", "c13": "unresolved", "c14": "unresolved" }, "ladder_counts": { "met_strict": 3, "met_standard": 1, "met_lenient": 1, "not_met": 5, "unresolved": 4 }, "n_claims": 14 }, "claims": [ { "id": "c1", "quote": "Economic growth in the U.S. improves from approximately 2.0% to approximately 2.5% real GDP.", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "macro", "rank": 6, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.98, "specificity": 2.97, "specificity_conf": 0.97, "boldness": 0.7, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.0, "spectrum": 1.0 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c2", "quote": "Inflation remains sticky and fails to make much if any progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "macro", "rank": 4, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.86, "specificity": 2.7, "specificity_conf": 0.7, "boldness": 1.26, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.05, "spectrum": 0.95 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c3", "quote": "The 10-year Treasury yield trades primarily between high 3%s and mid 4%s", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "rates", "rank": 12, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.85, "specificity": 2.84, "specificity_conf": 0.84, "boldness": 0.56, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.0, "spectrum": 1.0 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c4", "quote": "as credit spreads widen (i.e., a “coupon-ish” year)", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "rates", "rank": 8, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.92, "specificity": 2.16, "specificity_conf": 0.65, "boldness": 1.0, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.13, "spectrum": 0.87 } }, "split_of": "c3", "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c5", "quote": "Earnings growth falls short of consensus +14%", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "earnings", "rank": 2, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.94, "specificity": 2.86, "specificity_conf": 0.87, "boldness": 0.99, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.36, "spectrum": 0.64 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c6", "quote": "P/Es decline modestly, making it a tougher year to make money.", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "earnings", "rank": 10, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.93, "specificity": 2.05, "specificity_conf": 0.53, "boldness": 0.97, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.0, "spectrum": 1.0 } }, "split_of": "c5", "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c7", "quote": "Stocks fail to advance by a double-digit percentage for only the third time in 10 years.", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "binary", "domain": "equities", "rank": 5, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.81, "specificity": 2.96, "specificity_conf": 0.95, "boldness": 1.29, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.72, "spectrum": 0.28 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c8", "quote": "Technology, communication services, and financials outperform materials, utilities, and consumer discretionary.", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "sectors", "rank": 7, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.96, "specificity": 2.65, "specificity_conf": 0.66, "boldness": 0.91, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.23, "spectrum": 0.77 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c9", "quote": "International stocks outperform the U.S. for the second year in a row (first time in 20 years).", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "binary", "domain": "regions", "rank": 1, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.86, "specificity": 2.76, "specificity_conf": 0.75, "boldness": 1.35, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.87, "spectrum": 0.13 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c10", "quote": "AI continues to be volatile/erratic creating another year of elevated volatility.", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "equities", "rank": 11, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.95, "specificity": 1.7, "specificity_conf": 0.64, "boldness": 0.91, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.0, "spectrum": 1.0 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c11", "quote": "Faith-based share of industry AUM increases for the 10th year in a row.", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "macro", "rank": 13, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.85, "specificity": 2.46, "specificity_conf": 0.46, "boldness": 0.73, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.13, "spectrum": 0.87 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c12", "quote": "Republicans retain control of the Senate", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "binary", "domain": "politics", "rank": 9, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.93, "specificity": 2.21, "specificity_conf": 0.74, "boldness": 0.88, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.93, "spectrum": 0.07 } }, "split_of": null, "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c13", "quote": "but surrender the House", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "binary", "domain": "politics", "rank": 14, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.77, "specificity": 1.76, "specificity_conf": 0.49, "boldness": 1.23, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.93, "spectrum": 0.07 } }, "split_of": "c12", "source_id": "s1" }, { "id": "c14", "quote": "losing at least 20-25 seats.", "author": "Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-31", "attribution": "subject", "kind": "spectrum", "domain": "politics", "rank": 3, "scores": { "is_prediction": 0.91, "specificity": 2.49, "specificity_conf": 0.51, "boldness": 1.26, "kind_p": { "binary": 0.03, "spectrum": 0.97 } }, "split_of": "c12", "source_id": "s1" } ], "rubrics": [ { "claim_id": "c1", "kind": "spectrum", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "US real GDP growth for 2026 is approximately 2.5%, read as between 2.3% and 2.7%.", "measure": "BEA. Until the full-year figure exists (January 2027), use the year-over-year real GDP growth rate in the most recent reported quarter of 2026; the grade is provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.74, "checkable": 0.96 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "US real GDP growth for 2026 improves on 2025 and is at least 2.3%.", "measure": "BEA full-year figure when available, otherwise the latest year-over-year quarterly reading, compared with 2025's full-year rate; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.62, "checkable": 0.94 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "US real GDP growth for 2026 improves on 2025 by at least a quarter of a percentage point, half the improvement he predicted.", "measure": "BEA full-year figure when available, otherwise the latest year-over-year quarterly reading, compared with 2025's full-year rate; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.44, "checkable": 0.95 } } }, "notes": "The prediction names two numbers (from ~2.0% to ~2.5%). Strict holds him to 2.5 within 0.2; standard to 'approximately 2.5' read as at least 2.3 and improving; lenient to half the predicted improvement. An earlier lenient ('any improvement') was flagged by the critic check as too loose.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c2", "kind": "spectrum", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "Core inflation makes no meaningful progress toward 2% in 2026: the latest reading is at or above 2.6% and no more than 0.1 points below where it stood in December 2025.", "measure": "BEA core PCE, year over year, latest 2026 release versus the December 2025 figure.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.61, "checkable": 0.94 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "Core inflation in the latest 2026 reading is still at or above 2.5%, well short of the Fed's 2% target.", "measure": "BEA core PCE or BLS core CPI, year over year, latest 2026 release.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.67, "checkable": 0.95 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "At no point in 2026 has core inflation fallen to 2.3% or below.", "measure": "BEA core PCE and BLS core CPI, year over year, all 2026 releases.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.53, "checkable": 0.92 } } }, "notes": "'Sticky' and 'not much if any progress' are made concrete as distance from the 2% target and change from the December 2025 level.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c3", "kind": "spectrum", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "The 10-year Treasury yield stayed between the high 3%s and the mid 4%s on every trading day of 2026.", "measure": "FRED DGS10 daily closes through the run date; 'high 3%s' read as 3.70% and 'mid 4%s' as 4.60%; provisional until year end.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.48, "checkable": 0.96 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "The 10-year Treasury yield traded primarily between the high 3%s and the mid 4%s in 2026, read as at least 80% of trading days.", "measure": "FRED DGS10 daily closes through the run date, band 3.70% to 4.60%; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.73, "checkable": 0.93 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "The 10-year Treasury yield spent most of 2026 between the high 3%s and the mid 4%s and never strayed far outside that range.", "measure": "FRED DGS10 daily closes: a majority inside 3.70% to 4.60%, and no close below 3.25% or above 5.00%; a major outlet's summary of the year's high and low is acceptable; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.44, "checkable": 0.72 } } }, "notes": "His band is held constant across the bars; only the word 'primarily' is read differently: every day at strict, 80% of days at standard, a majority at lenient. The critic check rated an earlier version that widened the band at the looser bars as moving his goalposts.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c4", "kind": "spectrum", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "Credit spreads are clearly wider than at the start of 2026, in both investment grade and high yield.", "measure": "FRED BAMLC0A0CM (IG OAS) at least 10 bps wider and BAMLH0A0HYM2 (HY OAS) at least 25 bps wider at the latest reading than on 2025-12-31.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.7, "checkable": 0.9 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "High-yield credit spreads are wider than at the start of 2026.", "measure": "FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 latest reading versus 2025-12-31, or a major outlet citing it.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.78, "checkable": 0.92 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "Credit spreads widened during 2026, either ending wider than they started or widening materially at some point in the year.", "measure": "FRED IG or HY OAS wider at the latest reading than on 2025-12-31, or HY OAS at least 50 bps above its start-of-year level at any point in 2026.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.71, "checkable": 0.8 } } }, "notes": "Split from c3. 'Widen' is given a size at strict and a direction at standard; lenient also credits a widening episode that later retraced.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c5", "kind": "spectrum", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026 falls short of the 14% consensus he cited, according to both major trackers.", "measure": "FactSet Earnings Insight and LSEG I/B/E/S latest calendar-2026 growth figures (estimates blended with reported results), both below 14% and below each tracker's end-December-2025 consensus; provisional until all four quarters report.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.62, "checkable": 0.88 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026 falls short of the 14% consensus he cited.", "measure": "FactSet or LSEG latest calendar-2026 growth figure below 14%; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.85, "checkable": 0.83 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026 falls short of the consensus that stood when he made the prediction, by any margin.", "measure": "FactSet or LSEG latest calendar-2026 growth figure below that tracker's end-December-2025 consensus (about 14%); provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.74, "checkable": 0.79 } } }, "notes": "He named the number (consensus +14%), so the bars keep it. Strict requires both major trackers to agree; lenient accepts any shortfall against the start-of-year consensus.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c6", "kind": "spectrum", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "The S&P 500's P/E declined modestly in 2026, read as at least half a point.", "measure": "FactSet, LSEG or Yardeni forward 12-month P/E, latest reading versus 2025-12-31; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.45, "checkable": 0.88 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "The S&P 500's P/E declined in 2026, read as at least a quarter of a point.", "measure": "FactSet, LSEG or Yardeni forward 12-month P/E, latest reading versus 2025-12-31; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.62, "checkable": 0.92 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "The S&P 500's P/E did not expand in 2026: flat or lower than where it started.", "measure": "FactSet, LSEG or Yardeni forward 12-month P/E, latest reading no higher than on 2025-12-31; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.52, "checkable": 0.95 } } }, "notes": "Split from c5. 'Decline modestly' read as at least half a point at strict, a quarter point at standard, and 'did not expand' at lenient.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c7", "kind": "binary", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "Stocks fail to advance by a double-digit percentage in 2026, on both a price and a total-return basis.", "measure": "S&P 500 calendar-2026 price return and total return through the latest close, per S&P Dow Jones Indices or a major outlet; provisional until December 31.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.47, "checkable": 0.93 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "Stocks fail to advance by a double-digit percentage in 2026.", "measure": "S&P 500 calendar-2026 price return through the latest close below 10%, per S&P Dow Jones Indices or a major outlet; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.65, "checkable": 0.93 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "Stocks were short of a double-digit gain for 2026 at the latest close or at the end of the most recent completed quarter.", "measure": "S&P 500 2026 price return below 10% at the latest close or at the quarter end, per S&P Dow Jones Indices or a major outlet; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.6, "checkable": 0.88 } } }, "notes": "'Stocks' read as the S&P 500. The historical clause ('only the third time in 10 years') is context, not graded.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c8", "kind": "spectrum", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "Technology, communication services and financials each outperform each of materials, utilities and consumer discretionary in 2026.", "measure": "2026 year-to-date total returns of the S&P 500 sector indices or the SPDR ETFs XLK, XLC, XLF versus XLB, XLU, XLY; all nine pairwise comparisons; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.67, "checkable": 0.93 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "Technology, communication services and financials outperform materials, utilities and consumer discretionary in 2026 as groups, with most of the individual comparisons also holding.", "measure": "Equal-weighted average 2026 YTD return of the favoured three exceeds that of the disfavoured three, and at least two of the favoured sectors each beat at least two of the disfavoured; S&P sector indices or SPDR ETFs; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.57, "checkable": 0.78 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "Technology, communication services and financials outperform materials, utilities and consumer discretionary in 2026 as groups.", "measure": "Equal-weighted average 2026 YTD return of the favoured three exceeds that of the disfavoured three; S&P sector indices or SPDR ETFs; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.81, "checkable": 0.93 } } }, "notes": "Group-versus-group claim. Strict demands every pair; lenient the group averages.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c9", "kind": "binary", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "International stocks outperform US stocks in 2026, measured by the broadest international index.", "measure": "MSCI ACWI ex USA (USD, net total return) 2026 YTD return above the S&P 500 total return at the latest reading, per MSCI, S&P or a major outlet; provisional until December 31.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.27, "checkable": 0.94 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "International stocks outperform US stocks in 2026.", "measure": "MSCI ACWI ex USA or MSCI EAFE (USD, total return) 2026 YTD return above the S&P 500 total return; ETF proxies ACWX or EFA versus SPY acceptable; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.22, "checkable": 0.93 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "International stocks, by at least one broad measure, outperform US stocks in 2026.", "measure": "MSCI EAFE, MSCI ACWI ex USA or MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) 2026 YTD return above the S&P 500; ETF proxies acceptable; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.36, "checkable": 0.91 } } }, "notes": "'International stocks' read as the broadest ex-US index at strict, developed-or-broad at standard, any broad international index at lenient. An earlier strict demanded a 2-point margin he never promised; the critic check flagged it and it was removed. The 'second year in a row' clause is context.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c10", "kind": "spectrum", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "2026 was a year of elevated equity volatility with AI as the driver: volatility ran above normal all year, spiked at least once, and a major market drawdown was laid at AI's door.", "measure": "Cboe VIX 2026 average at least 18 (about its long-run mean) and at least one close above 30; at least one major outlet attributing an S&P 500 drawdown of 5% or more primarily to AI-related stocks; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.51, "checkable": 0.57 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "2026 saw elevated equity volatility and at least one notable selloff attributed to AI stocks.", "measure": "Cboe VIX 2026 average at least 17 or at least three S&P 500 daily moves of 2% or more, plus a major outlet attributing a notable selloff to AI-related stocks; provisional.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.66, "checkable": 0.87 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "At least one widely reported market selloff in 2026 was attributed primarily to AI stocks.", "measure": "Major-outlet reporting.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.51, "checkable": 0.68 } } }, "notes": "'Elevated volatility' is undefined in the source, so the measure supplies a VIX and daily-move definition; 'AI erratic' requires attribution in reporting. The critic check rates strict and standard near even odds, reflecting that the thresholds are ours.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c11", "kind": "binary", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "Faith-based funds' share of US fund industry assets rose in 2026, per an independent data provider.", "measure": "Morningstar, ISS or similar: faith-based or biblically responsible fund assets as a share of total US fund assets, latest 2026 reading versus end-2025.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.29, "checkable": 0.83 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "Faith-based funds grew faster than the fund industry in 2026, per a reputable industry source.", "measure": "Trade press or industry report comparing faith-based fund asset growth with total US fund asset growth in 2026, or stating the share rose.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.62, "checkable": 0.87 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "Faith-based funds gained share or outgrew the industry in 2026, per any industry source that is not solely Crossmark.", "measure": "Trade publication or industry report; Crossmark's own commentary is tier 4 and cannot carry the bar alone.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.48, "checkable": 0.82 } } }, "notes": "Niche data. Crossmark is itself a faith-based manager, so a Crossmark-only source cannot carry any bar.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c12", "kind": "binary", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "Republicans retain control of the Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.", "measure": "At least 50 Republican seats after the election (control with the Vice President's vote), per the AP or an official count; open until November 3.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.78, "checkable": 0.97 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "Republicans retain control of the Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.", "measure": "At least 50 Republican seats after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.81, "checkable": 0.97 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "Republicans retain control of the Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.", "measure": "At least 50 Republican seats after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.75, "checkable": 0.96 } } }, "notes": "Binary with nothing to be lenient about, so the three bars are identical. Open until November 3, 2026; any grade before then is provisional and market prices are not evidence of the outcome.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c13", "kind": "binary", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "Republicans surrender the House in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.", "measure": "Democrats hold at least 218 House seats after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.79, "checkable": 0.95 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "Republicans surrender the House in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.", "measure": "Democrats hold a House majority after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.78, "checkable": 0.94 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "Republicans surrender the House in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.", "measure": "Democrats hold a House majority after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.7, "checkable": 0.92 } } }, "notes": "Split from c12. Identical bars; open until November 3, 2026.", "revisions": [] }, { "claim_id": "c14", "kind": "spectrum", "bars": { "strict": { "criterion": "Republicans lose at least 25 House seats, the top of the range he gave.", "measure": "Net change in Republican House seats after the November 3, 2026 election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.52, "checkable": 0.96 } }, "standard": { "criterion": "Republicans lose at least 20 House seats, the floor he stated.", "measure": "Net change in Republican House seats after the November 3, 2026 election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.87, "checkable": 0.96 } }, "lenient": { "criterion": "Republicans lose about 20 House seats, allowing a near miss of two.", "measure": "Net loss of at least 18 Republican House seats after the November 3, 2026 election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3.", "check": { "critic_accepts": 0.4, "checkable": 0.91 } } }, "notes": "Split from c12. 'At least 20-25' is itself a range: strict takes the top of it, standard the floor he stated, lenient allows a near miss of two seats. 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"ffab5ff8cb0ba98f1a136a3e90f0af55156282e3fd0a0c0cbda58958bc865877", "provisional": true } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "e1", "claim_id": "c1", "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-2nd", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "BEA", "tier": 1, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised).", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e2", "claim_id": "c1", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=A191RO1Q156NBEA&cosd=2024-01-01&coed=2026-10-24", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "FRED (BEA), Real GDP percent change from quarter one year ago", "tier": 1, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "2025-10-01,2.0; 2026-01-01,2.6; 2026-04-01,2.2 [the most recent reported quarter, Q2 2026, shows year-over-year real GDP growth of 2.2%; Q1 2026 was 2.6%]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e3", "claim_id": "c1", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=A191RL1A225NBEA&cosd=2024-01-01&coed=2026-10-24", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "FRED (BEA), Real GDP annual percent change", "tier": 1, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "2024-01-01,3.0; 2025-01-01,2.3 [2025 full-year real GDP growth is 2.3% after BEA's September 2026 annual update; the February 2026 advance release had said 'Real GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2025']", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e4", "claim_id": "c1", "bars": [ "lenient" ], "url": "https://investinglive.com/central-banks/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-holds-at-3-6-for-q3-as-consumer-spending-outlook-improves/", "date": "2026-10-15", "source": "Atlanta Fed GDPNow (via InvestingLive)", "tier": 2, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 3.6 percent", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e5", "claim_id": "c1", "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule", "date": "2026-10-24", "source": "BEA release schedule", "tier": 1, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026: October 29, 8:30 AM; Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026: October 29, 8:30 AM [the Q3 2026 GDP figure is not yet published as of the run date]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e6", "claim_id": "c1", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "supports", "quote": "Despite oil reaching $100 per barrel (which one might think could bring any economy to its knees), economic growth in the U.S. remains relatively robust on the back of a resilient consumer and significant capital expenditures. ... U.S. real GDP tracking 5% q/q A.R. in 3Q", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e7", "claim_id": "c2", "bars": [ "standard", "lenient" ], "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm", "date": "2026-10-14", "source": "BLS CPI, September 2026", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "The all items index rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year.", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e8", "claim_id": "c2", "bars": [ "lenient" ], "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm", "date": "2026-09-11", "source": "BLS CPI, August 2026", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.4 percent over the year [the lowest core CPI 12-month reading of 2026; computed from FRED CPILFESL index levels, every 2026 month is between 2.4% and 2.8%]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e9", "claim_id": "c2", "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "BEA Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 3.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0 percent from one year ago.", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e10", "claim_id": "c2", "bars": [ "strict" ], "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2025", "date": "2026-02-20", "source": "BEA Personal Income and Outlays, December 2025", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for December increased 2.9 percent. ... Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0 percent from one year ago. [December 2025 baseline: core PCE 3.0%, unchanged at the August 2026 reading of 3.0%]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e11", "claim_id": "c2", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "supports", "quote": "Sadly, this one is nearly certain. Most year-over-year and year-to-date inflation measures have a 3-handle, with some over 4%.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e12", "claim_id": "c3", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS10&cosd=2025-12-01&coed=2026-10-24", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "FRED (Treasury H.15), 10-Year Treasury constant maturity, daily", "tier": 1, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "2025-12-31,4.18; 2026-02-27,3.97; 2026-05-18,4.61; 2026-09-16,5.01; 2026-09-30,5.29; 2026-10-05,5.31; 2026-10-22,4.96 [computed from the daily series: 134 of 203 closes in 2026 through 2026-10-22, or 66.0%, lie between 3.70 and 4.60; 69 closes are above 4.60 and 22 are above 5.00; none is below 3.70; the first close above 4.60 was 2026-05-18, the first above 5.00 was 2026-09-16; year low 3.97 on 2026-02-27, year high 5.31 on 2026-10-05]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e13", "claim_id": "c3", "url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield/news/589866", "date": "2026-10-06", "source": "Trading Economics", "tier": 2, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was at 5.26% on Tuesday ... pausing a surge that peaked at a 24-year high of 5.33% touched yesterday", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e14", "claim_id": "c3", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "Treasurys were weak (the 10-year yield rose from 4.38% at 6/30/26 to 5.26% at 9/30/26, reaching the highest level since 2002.) ... Treasury rates have improved topside in accelerating fashion toward the end of Q3. Some credit spreads (especially low quality) have begun to widen. Suspect this prediction will be half correct.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e15", "claim_id": "c3", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/10-Predictions-3Q26-Quarterly-Commentary_FINAL.pdf", "date": "2026-07-06", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (3Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "While price action for the 10-year Treasury has been confined to the high 3%s and mid 4%s, the threat on the upside still exists, especially with significant debt issuance to come, and the inflation problem mentioned in #2 above.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e16", "claim_id": "c4", "bars": [ "strict", "lenient" ], "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=BAMLC0A0CM&cosd=2025-12-01&coed=2026-10-24", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "FRED (ICE BofA), US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "2025-12-31,0.79; 2026-01-22,0.73; 2026-03-16,0.94; 2026-10-22,0.89 [investment-grade OAS is 10 bps wider at the latest reading than on 2025-12-31; 2026 low 0.73 on 2026-01-22, high 0.94 on 2026-03-16]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e17", "claim_id": "c4", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=BAMLH0A0HYM2&cosd=2025-12-01&coed=2026-10-24", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "FRED (ICE BofA), US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "2025-12-31,2.81; 2026-03-30,3.46; 2026-08-28,2.60; 2026-10-22,3.40 [high-yield OAS is 59 bps wider at the latest reading than on 2025-12-31; the 2026 high of 3.46 on 2026-03-30 was 65 bps above the start-of-year level; the 2026 low was 2.60 on 2026-08-28]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e18", "claim_id": "c4", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "supports", "quote": "We are starting to see some widening in credit spreads in low quality (e.g., CCC) paper, but most investment-grade spreads remain fairly tight. (Watch this space carefully.)", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e19", "claim_id": "c5", "url": "https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_010926.pdf", "date": "2026-01-09", "source": "FactSet Earnings Insight (January 9, 2026)", "tier": 1, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "For CY 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 14.9% and revenue growth of 7.3%. [start-of-year consensus baseline]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e20", "claim_id": "c5", "url": "https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2026-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-15", "date": "2025-12-19", "source": "FactSet Insight (December 19, 2025)", "tier": 1, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "The estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for CY 2026 is 15.0%, which is above the trailing 10-year average (annual) earnings growth rate of 8.6% (2015 - 2024).", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e21", "claim_id": "c5", "url": "https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-16-2026", "date": "2026-10-16", "source": "FactSet Earnings Insight (October 16, 2026)", "tier": 1, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "For CY 2026, analysts are predicting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 32.8%.", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e22", "claim_id": "c5", "bars": [ "strict" ], "url": "https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-sg/news-and-analysis/sp-500-earnings-ai-optimism-faces-the-test-of-higher-rates", "date": "2026-10-13", "source": "CMC Markets citing LSEG I/B/E/S", "tier": 2, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 30.6% year on year in the third quarter of 2026 ... 28.5% in the fourth [no LSEG full-year CY2026 figure was found]", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e23", "claim_id": "c5", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "Earnings growth has been extraordinary, both in absolute terms and relative to expectations. Earnings growth has exceeded expectations by nearly 15%, stocks are up roughly 10%, and therefore the P/E of the market has fallen by about 15% (or three P/E turns) since the start of the year.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e24", "claim_id": "c6", "url": "https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_010926.pdf", "date": "2026-01-09", "source": "FactSet Earnings Insight (January 9, 2026)", "tier": 1, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 22.2, which is above the 5-year average (20.0) and above the 10-year average (18.7). [closest published FactSet reading to December 31, 2025; the December 19, 2025 edition read 21.8]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e25", "claim_id": "c6", "url": "https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-16-2026", "date": "2026-10-16", "source": "FactSet Earnings Insight (October 16, 2026)", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 19.0, which is below the 5-year average (19.8) and below the 10-year average (19.1).", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e26", "claim_id": "c6", "url": "https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_100926.pdf", "date": "2026-10-09", "source": "FactSet Earnings Insight (October 9, 2026)", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 19.1. This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (19.8) but equal to the 10-year average (19.1).", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e27", "claim_id": "c6", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "supports", "quote": "The bond yield increase has impacted stocks as the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 has moved down from 22x to 19x forward earnings (in other words, stocks are up, but much less than earnings).", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e28", "claim_id": "c7", "bars": [ "lenient" ], "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SP500&cosd=2024-01-01&coed=2026-10-24", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices), S&P 500 daily close", "tier": 1, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "2025-12-31,6845.50; 2026-06-30,7499.36; 2026-09-30,7651.54 [price return 2026 year to date: 9.55% at the end of Q2, 11.77% at the end of Q3]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e29", "claim_id": "c7", "bars": [ "strict", "standard" ], "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/", "date": "2026-10-23", "source": "Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 (^GSPC) historical closes", "tier": 2, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "Oct 23, 2026: 7,623.68; Oct 22, 2026: 7,663.43; Oct 21, 2026: 7,757.17 [price return 2026 year to date from the 2025-12-31 close of 6,845.50: 11.37% at the Oct 23 close]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e30", "claim_id": "c7", "bars": [ "strict", "lenient" ], "url": "https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "State Street (SPY fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "YTD as of Sep 30 2026: NAV 12.65%, Market Value 12.66%, S&P 500 Index 12.75% [total return]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e31", "claim_id": "c7", "bars": [ "strict" ], "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance/", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "Yahoo Finance, SPY performance", "tier": 2, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "Trailing returns as of 10/22/2026. Category is Large Blend. YTD: SPY 12.68% [the Performance Overview on the same page shows YTD Return 12.91%; total return]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e32", "claim_id": "c7", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "The S&P 500 has advanced a bit over 10% so far this year. ... another double-digit stock market return is possible.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e33", "claim_id": "c8", "url": "https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/the-technology-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlk", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "State Street (XLK fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "YTD as of Sep 30 2026: Fund NAV 39.47%, Fund Market Value 39.53%, Technology Select Sector Index 39.57%", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e34", "claim_id": "c8", "url": "https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/the-communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlc", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "State Street (XLC fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "YTD as of Sep 30 2026: NAV -4.87%, Market Value -4.84%, Communication Services Select Sector Index -4.83% [below Materials (XLB 8.75%) but above Utilities (XLU -5.71%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -8.27%)]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e35", "claim_id": "c8", "url": "https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/the-financial-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlf", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "State Street (XLF fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "YTD as of Sep 30 2026: NAV -1.35%, Market Value -1.34%, Financial Select Sector Index -1.30% [below Materials (XLB 8.75%) but above Utilities (XLU -5.71%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -8.27%)]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e36", "claim_id": "c8", "url": "https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/the-materials-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlb", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "State Street (XLB fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "YTD as of Sep 30 2026: NAV 8.75%, Market Value 8.76%, Materials Select Sector Index 8.84%", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e37", "claim_id": "c8", "url": "https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/the-utilities-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlu", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "State Street (XLU fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "YTD as of Sep 30 2026: Fund NAV -5.71%, Fund Market Value -5.73%, Utilities Select Sector Index -5.65%", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e38", "claim_id": "c8", "url": "https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/the-consumer-discretionary-select-sector-spdr-fund-xly", "date": "2026-09-30", "source": "State Street (XLY fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "YTD as of Sep 30 2026: NAV -8.27%, Market Value -8.26%, Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index -8.25% [equal-weighted average of XLK, XLC, XLF at Sep 30: 11.08%; of XLB, XLU, XLY: -1.74%]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e39", "claim_id": "c8", "bars": [ "standard", "lenient" ], "url": "https://chartrow.com/sp500/sector-performance", "date": "2026-10-23", "source": "ChartRow sector ETF tracker (total return, dividends reinvested)", "tier": 2, "direction": "supports", "quote": "YTD total return as of market close, October 23, 2026: XLK +27.7%, XLC -9.6%, XLF +3.3%, XLB +14.6%, XLU +1.8%, XLY -4.7%, XLE +58.1% [equal-weighted average of XLK, XLC, XLF: 7.1%; of XLB, XLU, XLY: 3.9%; XLC and XLF each trail XLB, so not all nine pairs hold]", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e40", "claim_id": "c8", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "supports", "quote": "This prediction looked hopeless on March 31. But, as of Sept. 30, our projected outperformers are leading our projected underperformers by approximately 1000 bps, thanks to strong performance from technology and a much-improved financial sector, as well as relative weakness in utilities and consumer discretionary.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e41", "claim_id": "c8", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/10-Predictions-2Q26-Quarterly-Commentary_FINAL.pdf", "date": "2026-04-06", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (2Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "Well, in the category of 'You can't win 'em all,' this prediction is headed in a very bad direction. ... financials have been the worst sector performer so far this year. Meanwhile, materials has been a stellar performer.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e42", "claim_id": "c9", "bars": [ "strict", "standard" ], "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239594/ishares-msci-acwi-ex-us-etf", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "iShares (ACWX, MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "NAV Total Return, YTD: Increase 10.86%, as of Oct 22, 2026 [SPY total return YTD on the same date: 12.68% per Yahoo Finance trailing returns]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e43", "claim_id": "c9", "bars": [ "standard" ], "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239623/ishares-msci-eafe-etf", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "iShares (EFA, MSCI EAFE ETF fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "contradicts", "quote": "NAV Total Return, YTD: Increase 9.23%, as of Oct 22, 2026", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e44", "claim_id": "c9", "bars": [ "lenient" ], "url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "iShares (EEM, MSCI Emerging Markets ETF fund page)", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "NAV Total Return, YTD: Increase 13.22%, as of Oct 22, 2026 [against SPY 12.68% on the same date; Yahoo Finance's EEM page shows 13.38% in its overview and 22.77% in its trailing-returns table, so the EM figure is disputed between sources]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e45", "claim_id": "c9", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "supports", "quote": "International stocks are ahead of U.S. stocks by about 150 bps, but the lead has changed several times. Certainly, EM stocks have helped the international averages. Oil price increases are more damaging to international than the U.S. This one could be a photo finish.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e46", "claim_id": "c10", "bars": [ "strict", "standard" ], "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS&cosd=2025-12-01&coed=2026-10-24", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "FRED (Cboe), VIX daily close", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "2025-12-31,14.95; 2026-03-27,31.05; 2026-03-30,30.61; 2026-09-22,14.21; 2026-10-22,19.03 [computed from the daily series: the VIX averaged 18.09 over its 209 closes in 2026 through 2026-10-22; highest close 31.05 on 2026-03-27; two closes above 30; 14 closes at or above 25]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e47", "claim_id": "c10", "bars": [ "standard" ], "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SP500&cosd=2024-01-01&coed=2026-10-24", "date": "2026-10-21", "source": "FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices), S&P 500 daily close", "tier": 1, "direction": "supports", "quote": "2026-01-20,6796.86; 2026-03-31,6528.52; 2026-04-08,6782.81; 2026-06-05,7383.74 [computed from the daily series: four S&P 500 sessions in 2026 through 2026-10-21 moved 2% or more from the prior close: -2.06%, +2.91%, +2.51%, -2.64%]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e48", "claim_id": "c10", "bars": [ "standard", "lenient" ], "url": "https://www.ironmountaindailynews.com/news/business/2026/06/sell-off-for-ai-stocks-knocks-wall-street-back/", "date": "2026-06-10", "source": "AP (Stan Choe), via Iron Mountain Daily News", "tier": 2, "direction": "supports", "quote": "Another sell-off for artificial-intelligence stocks helped drag the U.S. market sharply lower Wednesday ... The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% for its first back-to-back drop in three weeks ... Among the worries is that their prices have simply shot too high, too fast because of AI mania.", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e49", "claim_id": "c10", "bars": [ "strict" ], "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SP500&cosd=2024-01-01&coed=2026-10-24", "date": "2026-06-10", "source": "FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices), S&P 500 daily close", "tier": 1, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "2026-06-02,7609.78; 2026-06-10,7266.99 [the S&P 500 fell 4.50% from its June 2 close to its June 10 close over the AI-stock sell-off the AP reported, short of a 5% drawdown; the year's largest drawdown was 9.10%, from the 2026-02-02 close to the 2026-03-30 close]", "found_by": "fetch" }, { "id": "e50", "claim_id": "c10", "bars": [ "lenient" ], "url": "https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/02/wall-street-ends-sharply-down-as-ai-worries-weigh.html", "date": "2026-02-06", "source": "AAP via CommBank Newsroom", "tier": 2, "direction": "supports", "quote": "Wall Street ended sharply lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq dragged to its lowest since November by tech heavyweights ... The S&P 500 declined 1.23 per cent ... said it could double capital spending on AI", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e51", "claim_id": "c10", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "supports", "quote": "The AI complex witnessed noticeable volatility with the SOX falling 11.4%. ... Our expectation remains that AI will be controversial, create confusion and volatility, and result in some amazing positive stories and some noticeable losses.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e52", "claim_id": "c11", "url": "https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/blog/faith-based-investing-data", "date": "2026-04-30", "source": "Morningstar (faith-based investing data blog)", "tier": 2, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "about 150 faith-based mutual funds and ETFs with nearly $97 billion in assets ... as of April 30, 2026 ... Total flows into religiously themed funds were positive for the year to date and over the trailing 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods ... multi-year amounts for the whole segment are small compared to the broader industry [no share-of-industry figure is given]", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e53", "claim_id": "c11", "url": "https://www.faithinvest.org/post/morningstar-introduces-tags-for-christian-catholic-funds-maps-the-faith-based-investing-landscape", "date": "2026-08-19", "source": "FaithInvest, summarising Morningstar's Faith-Based Investing: Global Landscape report", "tier": 2, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "roughly $169bn of assets under management (AUM) ... 853 active funds across the US, Middle East, Asia, and Europe ... as of April 30, 2026 ... Of these 853 funds, 650 were Shariah, 114 were nondenominational Christian, 87 were Catholic funds [a small but growing segment; no growth rate or share figure is given]", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e54", "claim_id": "c11", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "date": "2026-10-05", "source": "Bob Doll, Crossmark (4Q26 commentary)", "tier": 4, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "The faith-based share of money management industry AUM has increased nine years in a row, granted from a very small base. We expect this to be the tenth year in a row making it a decade of more than doubling market share.", "found_by": "author" }, { "id": "e55", "claim_id": "c12", "url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/3996004-explainer-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-2026-us-midterm-elections", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "Reuters explainer (syndicated via Devdiscourse)", "tier": 2, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections ... Republicans hold a 53-47 majority ... must net four additional seats to get control [the Senate outcome is not known until after November 3, 2026]", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e56", "claim_id": "c13", "url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/3996004-explainer-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-2026-us-midterm-elections", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "Reuters explainer (syndicated via Devdiscourse)", "tier": 2, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections ... Currently, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House ... win a net gain of four seats to win control [the House outcome is not known until after November 3, 2026]", "found_by": "websearch" }, { "id": "e57", "claim_id": "c14", "url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/3996004-explainer-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-2026-us-midterm-elections", "date": "2026-10-22", "source": "Reuters explainer (syndicated via Devdiscourse)", "tier": 2, "direction": "neutral", "quote": "ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections ... Currently, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House [the net seat change is not known until after November 3, 2026]", "found_by": "websearch" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "s1", "url": "https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/", "title": "Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market", "author": "Bob Doll, as reported by 401(k) Specialist", "date": "2026-01-02", "format": "article", "access": "free", "role": "canonical", "note": "Full verbatim list of the ten predictions. Doll's own release was Dec 31, 2025.", "chars": 7494, "text_sha256": "72487a0b1d472ca2d90fd7f76be7ffcc3cb18162220ad0cb385fa2aa96ac76b1" }, { "id": "s2", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/Bob-Doll-1Q26-Investment-Update-10-Predictions-Webinar-PPT-1.pdf", "title": "Bob Doll 1Q26 Investment Update: 10 Predictions (webinar deck)", "author": "Bob Doll, Crossmark Global", "date": "2026-01-08", "format": "pdf", "access": "free", "role": "canonical", "note": "Crossmark-hosted deck; the authoritative wording where secondary outlets differ (e.g. the 10-year yield band).", "chars": 86781, "text_sha256": "737f583760cb68e0c763a4c307bae570dcaf356473d8029ff714541b40f7e1db" }, { "id": "s3", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/10-Predictions-2Q26-Quarterly-Commentary_FINAL.pdf", "title": "10 Predictions: 2Q26 Quarterly Commentary", "author": "Bob Doll, Crossmark Global", "date": "2026-04-06", "format": "pdf", "access": "free", "role": "self_grade", "note": "In-year self-scoring. Tier 4 evidence at the grading stage; admissions strong, claims of hits weak.", "chars": 27421, "text_sha256": "e2c8401df2e1bf3afca87d84f564e61bf5a388242243c5d74464f931d04b4cb2" }, { "id": "s4", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/10-Predictions-3Q26-Quarterly-Commentary_FINAL.pdf", "title": "10 Predictions: 3Q26 Quarterly Commentary", "author": "Bob Doll, Crossmark Global", "date": "2026-07-06", "format": "pdf", "access": "free", "role": "self_grade", "note": "In-year self-scoring.", "chars": 24137, "text_sha256": "afb5645c9fba655430d8af3db34478e0deac13064d2e30de638981f3c97bc537" }, { "id": "s5", "url": "https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/quarterly-investment-commentary-4q26/", "title": "Quarterly Investment Commentary 4Q26", "author": "Bob Doll, Crossmark Global", "date": "2026-10-05", "format": "page", "access": "free", "role": "self_grade", "note": "Reported as 5 'heading in the right direction', 0 wrong, 5 'too soon or too close to call'.", "chars": 24013, "text_sha256": "b1f33486edd3d071b8f887945516d13573c5caf369ca91db01c163178833cd30" }, { "id": "s6", "url": "https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-doll-7-of-10-2025-predictions-came-to-fruition/", "title": "Bob Doll: 7 of 10 2025 Predictions Came to Fruition", "author": "401(k) Specialist, quoting Bob Doll", "date": "2025-12-18", "format": "article", "access": "free", "role": "prior_year", "note": "His final verdict on 2025 (6 correct, 2 half, 2 wrong). Shows the ritual and his grading style. Not graded.", "chars": 9765, "text_sha256": "7963bde3d99bb2a2ac21f900588cdd8518ca9d8ed018d647d2b2ae84362a6b8b" } ], "extras": { "jev_tokens": 153269, "input_sha256": { "sources": "2c3b384fadc9accb1d9cf9e459e568b6361a34e64779d5051e59cd08dfd35d76", "claims": "01be5dec26de6eaedd2bbaae3ce34a9bddc48a4ed06a992463a0dbaa0c87c4c8", "rubrics": "92492ca74f448087164468bfa75997957415a1ba236fab16f3e04a290107dcf6", "evidence": "f25aca944ba3b435d769e6d2949998c044368b8ce576ec5ffc5a63cfa339a17d", "grades": "3a42d280998e1af82040f45eb0d060a9b864bc8d6b18922d02f6c31f2e94d45a" } } }