# Draft self-review for Bob Doll (bar: standard)

A thread the subject could post. One line per claim, graded at the chosen bar, with the receipts linked. Edit freely; the numbers come from the run.

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My 2026 predictions break into 14 checkable claims. Here is how they scored as of 2026-10-24, graded at three bars by called-it with every receipt attached: 21% strict, 29% standard, 36% lenient. 5 still open. Thread:

1/ ✗ missed (provisional): "International stocks outperform the U.S. for the second year in a row (first time in 20 years)."
2/ ✗ missed (provisional): "Earnings growth falls short of consensus +14%"
3/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "losing at least 20-25 seats."
4/ ✓ called it (provisional): "Inflation remains sticky and fails to make much if any progress toward the Fed’s 2% target."
5/ ✗ missed (provisional): "Stocks fail to advance by a double-digit percentage for only the third time in 10 years."
6/ ✗ missed (provisional): "Economic growth in the U.S. improves from approximately 2.0% to approximately 2.5% real GDP."
7/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "Technology, communication services, and financials outperform materials, utilities, and consumer discretionary."
8/ ✓ called it (provisional): "as credit spreads widen (i.e., a “coupon-ish” year)"
9/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "Republicans retain control of the Senate"
10/ ✓ called it (provisional): "P/Es decline modestly, making it a tougher year to make money."
11/ ✓ called it (provisional): "AI continues to be volatile/erratic creating another year of elevated volatility."
12/ ✗ missed (provisional): "The 10-year Treasury yield trades primarily between high 3%s and mid 4%s"
13/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "Faith-based share of industry AUM increases for the 10th year in a row."
14/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "but surrender the House"

15/ Every grade, bar and evidence row is here: runs/doll/report.html. If you think a bar is unfair, say which one; the run is replayable and I will regrade.