# Rubric review sheet: Bob Doll, 2026

14 selected claims, three bars each. Written before any evidence was gathered. Edit `rubrics.jsonl`, then rerun `check-rubrics` and `sheet`. A flag means the critic check put the bar under even odds of being a fair reading, or doubted it is checkable; it is a prompt to look, not a verdict.
Flags: 11 of 42 bars.


## c9. Bob Doll: International stocks outperform the U.S. for the second year in a row (first time in 20 years).

> International stocks outperform the U.S. for the second year in a row (first time in 20 years).

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 1, binary, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 7 of 10. A broad international index (MSCI ACWI ex-US or EAFE) beats the S&P 500 over calendar 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | International stocks outperform US stocks in 2026, measured by the broadest international index. | MSCI ACWI ex USA (USD, net total return) 2026 YTD return above the S&P 500 total return at the latest reading, per MSCI, S&P or a major outlet; provisional until December 31. | 0.27 | 0.94 |
| **standard** ⚑ | International stocks outperform US stocks in 2026. | MSCI ACWI ex USA or MSCI EAFE (USD, total return) 2026 YTD return above the S&P 500 total return; ETF proxies ACWX or EFA versus SPY acceptable; provisional. | 0.22 | 0.93 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | International stocks, by at least one broad measure, outperform US stocks in 2026. | MSCI EAFE, MSCI ACWI ex USA or MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) 2026 YTD return above the S&P 500; ETF proxies acceptable; provisional. | 0.36 | 0.91 |

Notes: 'International stocks' read as the broadest ex-US index at strict, developed-or-broad at standard, any broad international index at lenient. An earlier strict demanded a 2-point margin he never promised; the critic check flagged it and it was removed. The 'second year in a row' clause is context.

## c5. Bob Doll: Earnings growth falls short of consensus +14%

> Earnings growth falls short of consensus +14%

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 2, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 4 of 10, first half. S&P 500 calendar-2026 earnings growth comes in below the roughly 14% consensus that stood at the start of the year.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026 falls short of the 14% consensus he cited, according to both major trackers. | FactSet Earnings Insight and LSEG I/B/E/S latest calendar-2026 growth figures (estimates blended with reported results), both below 14% and below each tracker's end-December-2025 consensus; provisional until all four quarters report. | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| **standard** | S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026 falls short of the 14% consensus he cited. | FactSet or LSEG latest calendar-2026 growth figure below 14%; provisional. | 0.85 | 0.83 |
| **lenient** | S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026 falls short of the consensus that stood when he made the prediction, by any margin. | FactSet or LSEG latest calendar-2026 growth figure below that tracker's end-December-2025 consensus (about 14%); provisional. | 0.74 | 0.79 |

Notes: He named the number (consensus +14%), so the bars keep it. Strict requires both major trackers to agree; lenient accepts any shortfall against the start-of-year consensus.

## c14. Bob Doll: losing at least 20-25 seats.

> losing at least 20-25 seats.

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 3, spectrum, horizon 2026-11-03. Prediction 10 of 10, third part, split from c12. Republicans' net House loss is at least 20 seats. 'At least 20-25' is itself a range; the bars settle it.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Republicans lose at least 25 House seats, the top of the range he gave. | Net change in Republican House seats after the November 3, 2026 election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3. | 0.52 | 0.96 |
| **standard** | Republicans lose at least 20 House seats, the floor he stated. | Net change in Republican House seats after the November 3, 2026 election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3. | 0.87 | 0.96 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | Republicans lose about 20 House seats, allowing a near miss of two. | Net loss of at least 18 Republican House seats after the November 3, 2026 election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3. | 0.40 | 0.91 |

Notes: Split from c12. 'At least 20-25' is itself a range: strict takes the top of it, standard the floor he stated, lenient allows a near miss of two seats. Open until November 3, 2026.

## c2. Bob Doll: Inflation remains sticky and fails to make much if any progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.

> Inflation remains sticky and fails to make much if any progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 4, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 2 of 10. Core inflation (PCE or CPI) ends 2026 roughly where it started rather than converging toward 2%.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Core inflation makes no meaningful progress toward 2% in 2026: the latest reading is at or above 2.6% and no more than 0.1 points below where it stood in December 2025. | BEA core PCE, year over year, latest 2026 release versus the December 2025 figure. | 0.61 | 0.94 |
| **standard** | Core inflation in the latest 2026 reading is still at or above 2.5%, well short of the Fed's 2% target. | BEA core PCE or BLS core CPI, year over year, latest 2026 release. | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| **lenient** | At no point in 2026 has core inflation fallen to 2.3% or below. | BEA core PCE and BLS core CPI, year over year, all 2026 releases. | 0.53 | 0.92 |

Notes: 'Sticky' and 'not much if any progress' are made concrete as distance from the 2% target and change from the December 2025 level.

## c7. Bob Doll: Stocks fail to advance by a double-digit percentage for only the third time in 10 years.

> Stocks fail to advance by a double-digit percentage for only the third time in 10 years.

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 5, binary, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 5 of 10. The S&P 500 gains less than 10% in calendar 2026 (price or total return; the bars say which).

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | Stocks fail to advance by a double-digit percentage in 2026, on both a price and a total-return basis. | S&P 500 calendar-2026 price return and total return through the latest close, per S&P Dow Jones Indices or a major outlet; provisional until December 31. | 0.47 | 0.93 |
| **standard** | Stocks fail to advance by a double-digit percentage in 2026. | S&P 500 calendar-2026 price return through the latest close below 10%, per S&P Dow Jones Indices or a major outlet; provisional. | 0.65 | 0.93 |
| **lenient** | Stocks were short of a double-digit gain for 2026 at the latest close or at the end of the most recent completed quarter. | S&P 500 2026 price return below 10% at the latest close or at the quarter end, per S&P Dow Jones Indices or a major outlet; provisional. | 0.60 | 0.88 |

Notes: 'Stocks' read as the S&P 500. The historical clause ('only the third time in 10 years') is context, not graded.

## c1. Bob Doll: Economic growth in the U.S. improves from approximately 2.0% to approximately 2.5% real GDP.

> Economic growth in the U.S. improves from approximately 2.0% to approximately 2.5% real GDP.

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 6, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 1 of 10. Full-year 2026 real GDP growth of about 2.5%, up from about 2.0% in 2025. Final 2026 GDP is published in early 2027; quarterly readings exist through Q3 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | US real GDP growth for 2026 is approximately 2.5%, read as between 2.3% and 2.7%. | BEA. Until the full-year figure exists (January 2027), use the year-over-year real GDP growth rate in the most recent reported quarter of 2026; the grade is provisional. | 0.74 | 0.96 |
| **standard** | US real GDP growth for 2026 improves on 2025 and is at least 2.3%. | BEA full-year figure when available, otherwise the latest year-over-year quarterly reading, compared with 2025's full-year rate; provisional. | 0.62 | 0.94 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | US real GDP growth for 2026 improves on 2025 by at least a quarter of a percentage point, half the improvement he predicted. | BEA full-year figure when available, otherwise the latest year-over-year quarterly reading, compared with 2025's full-year rate; provisional. | 0.44 | 0.95 |

Notes: The prediction names two numbers (from ~2.0% to ~2.5%). Strict holds him to 2.5 within 0.2; standard to 'approximately 2.5' read as at least 2.3 and improving; lenient to half the predicted improvement. An earlier lenient ('any improvement') was flagged by the critic check as too loose.

## c8. Bob Doll: Technology, communication services, and financials outperform materials, utilities, and consumer discretionary.

> Technology, communication services, and financials outperform materials, utilities, and consumer discretionary.

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 7, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 6 of 10. Three favoured S&P 500 sectors beat three disfavoured ones over calendar 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Technology, communication services and financials each outperform each of materials, utilities and consumer discretionary in 2026. | 2026 year-to-date total returns of the S&P 500 sector indices or the SPDR ETFs XLK, XLC, XLF versus XLB, XLU, XLY; all nine pairwise comparisons; provisional. | 0.67 | 0.93 |
| **standard** | Technology, communication services and financials outperform materials, utilities and consumer discretionary in 2026 as groups, with most of the individual comparisons also holding. | Equal-weighted average 2026 YTD return of the favoured three exceeds that of the disfavoured three, and at least two of the favoured sectors each beat at least two of the disfavoured; S&P sector indices or SPDR ETFs; provisional. | 0.57 | 0.78 |
| **lenient** | Technology, communication services and financials outperform materials, utilities and consumer discretionary in 2026 as groups. | Equal-weighted average 2026 YTD return of the favoured three exceeds that of the disfavoured three; S&P sector indices or SPDR ETFs; provisional. | 0.81 | 0.93 |

Notes: Group-versus-group claim. Strict demands every pair; lenient the group averages.

## c4. Bob Doll: as credit spreads widen (i.e., a “coupon-ish” year)

> as credit spreads widen (i.e., a “coupon-ish” year)

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 8, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 3 of 10, second half, split from c3. Corporate credit spreads (investment grade and high yield) end 2026 wider than they began.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Credit spreads are clearly wider than at the start of 2026, in both investment grade and high yield. | FRED BAMLC0A0CM (IG OAS) at least 10 bps wider and BAMLH0A0HYM2 (HY OAS) at least 25 bps wider at the latest reading than on 2025-12-31. | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| **standard** | High-yield credit spreads are wider than at the start of 2026. | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 latest reading versus 2025-12-31, or a major outlet citing it. | 0.78 | 0.92 |
| **lenient** | Credit spreads widened during 2026, either ending wider than they started or widening materially at some point in the year. | FRED IG or HY OAS wider at the latest reading than on 2025-12-31, or HY OAS at least 50 bps above its start-of-year level at any point in 2026. | 0.71 | 0.80 |

Notes: Split from c3. 'Widen' is given a size at strict and a direction at standard; lenient also credits a widening episode that later retraced.

## c12. Bob Doll: Republicans retain control of the Senate

> Republicans retain control of the Senate

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 9, binary, horizon 2026-11-03. Prediction 10 of 10, first part. Midterm elections are on 2026-11-03, after this run's evidence window, so the claim is open.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Republicans retain control of the Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. | At least 50 Republican seats after the election (control with the Vice President's vote), per the AP or an official count; open until November 3. | 0.78 | 0.97 |
| **standard** | Republicans retain control of the Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. | At least 50 Republican seats after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3. | 0.81 | 0.97 |
| **lenient** | Republicans retain control of the Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. | At least 50 Republican seats after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3. | 0.75 | 0.96 |

Notes: Binary with nothing to be lenient about, so the three bars are identical. Open until November 3, 2026; any grade before then is provisional and market prices are not evidence of the outcome.

## c6. Bob Doll: P/Es decline modestly, making it a tougher year to make money.

> P/Es decline modestly, making it a tougher year to make money.

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 10, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 4 of 10, second half, split from c5. The S&P 500 forward or trailing P/E ends 2026 modestly below where it started.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | The S&P 500's P/E declined modestly in 2026, read as at least half a point. | FactSet, LSEG or Yardeni forward 12-month P/E, latest reading versus 2025-12-31; provisional. | 0.45 | 0.88 |
| **standard** | The S&P 500's P/E declined in 2026, read as at least a quarter of a point. | FactSet, LSEG or Yardeni forward 12-month P/E, latest reading versus 2025-12-31; provisional. | 0.62 | 0.92 |
| **lenient** | The S&P 500's P/E did not expand in 2026: flat or lower than where it started. | FactSet, LSEG or Yardeni forward 12-month P/E, latest reading no higher than on 2025-12-31; provisional. | 0.52 | 0.95 |

Notes: Split from c5. 'Decline modestly' read as at least half a point at strict, a quarter point at standard, and 'did not expand' at lenient.

## c10. Bob Doll: AI continues to be volatile/erratic creating another year of elevated volatility.

> AI continues to be volatile/erratic creating another year of elevated volatility.

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 11, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 8 of 10. Equity volatility in 2026 stays elevated relative to a calm year, with AI-related names the driver. 'Elevated' is undefined in the source.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | 2026 was a year of elevated equity volatility with AI as the driver: volatility ran above normal all year, spiked at least once, and a major market drawdown was laid at AI's door. | Cboe VIX 2026 average at least 18 (about its long-run mean) and at least one close above 30; at least one major outlet attributing an S&P 500 drawdown of 5% or more primarily to AI-related stocks; provisional. | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| **standard** | 2026 saw elevated equity volatility and at least one notable selloff attributed to AI stocks. | Cboe VIX 2026 average at least 17 or at least three S&P 500 daily moves of 2% or more, plus a major outlet attributing a notable selloff to AI-related stocks; provisional. | 0.66 | 0.87 |
| **lenient** | At least one widely reported market selloff in 2026 was attributed primarily to AI stocks. | Major-outlet reporting. | 0.51 | 0.68 |

Notes: 'Elevated volatility' is undefined in the source, so the measure supplies a VIX and daily-move definition; 'AI erratic' requires attribution in reporting. The critic check rates strict and standard near even odds, reflecting that the thresholds are ours.

## c3. Bob Doll: The 10-year Treasury yield trades primarily between high 3%s and mid 4%s

> The 10-year Treasury yield trades primarily between high 3%s and mid 4%s

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 12, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 3 of 10, first half. The 10-year yield spends most of 2026 in roughly a 3.75% to 4.5% band. Some outlets paraphrase the band as 3.5% to 4.5%; the Crossmark deck (s2) wording governs.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | The 10-year Treasury yield stayed between the high 3%s and the mid 4%s on every trading day of 2026. | FRED DGS10 daily closes through the run date; 'high 3%s' read as 3.70% and 'mid 4%s' as 4.60%; provisional until year end. | 0.48 | 0.96 |
| **standard** | The 10-year Treasury yield traded primarily between the high 3%s and the mid 4%s in 2026, read as at least 80% of trading days. | FRED DGS10 daily closes through the run date, band 3.70% to 4.60%; provisional. | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | The 10-year Treasury yield spent most of 2026 between the high 3%s and the mid 4%s and never strayed far outside that range. | FRED DGS10 daily closes: a majority inside 3.70% to 4.60%, and no close below 3.25% or above 5.00%; a major outlet's summary of the year's high and low is acceptable; provisional. | 0.44 | 0.72 |

Notes: His band is held constant across the bars; only the word 'primarily' is read differently: every day at strict, 80% of days at standard, a majority at lenient. The critic check rated an earlier version that widened the band at the looser bars as moving his goalposts.

## c11. Bob Doll: Faith-based share of industry AUM increases for the 10th year in a row.

> Faith-based share of industry AUM increases for the 10th year in a row.

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 13, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Prediction 9 of 10. Faith-based or values-based funds grow as a share of total industry assets in 2026. Crossmark itself is a faith-based manager; data likely comes from Morningstar or industry bodies.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | Faith-based funds' share of US fund industry assets rose in 2026, per an independent data provider. | Morningstar, ISS or similar: faith-based or biblically responsible fund assets as a share of total US fund assets, latest 2026 reading versus end-2025. | 0.29 | 0.83 |
| **standard** | Faith-based funds grew faster than the fund industry in 2026, per a reputable industry source. | Trade press or industry report comparing faith-based fund asset growth with total US fund asset growth in 2026, or stating the share rose. | 0.62 | 0.87 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | Faith-based funds gained share or outgrew the industry in 2026, per any industry source that is not solely Crossmark. | Trade publication or industry report; Crossmark's own commentary is tier 4 and cannot carry the bar alone. | 0.48 | 0.82 |

Notes: Niche data. Crossmark is itself a faith-based manager, so a Crossmark-only source cannot carry any bar.

## c13. Bob Doll: but surrender the House

> but surrender the House

2025-12-31, [Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026: High-Risk Bull Market](https://401kspecialistmag.com/bob-dolls-10-predictions-for-2026-high-risk-bull-market/). Rank 14, binary, horizon 2026-11-03. Prediction 10 of 10, second part, split from c12. Democrats win a House majority in the 2026 midterms (2026-11-03).

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Republicans surrender the House in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. | Democrats hold at least 218 House seats after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3. | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| **standard** | Republicans surrender the House in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. | Democrats hold a House majority after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3. | 0.78 | 0.94 |
| **lenient** | Republicans surrender the House in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. | Democrats hold a House majority after the election, per the AP or an official count; open until November 3. | 0.70 | 0.92 |

Notes: Split from c12. Identical bars; open until November 3, 2026.