# Draft self-review for Every (bar: standard)

A thread the subject could post. One line per claim, graded at the chosen bar, with the receipts linked. Edit freely; the numbers come from the run.

---

My 2026 predictions break into 22 checkable claims. Here is how they scored as of 2026-10-24, graded at three bars by called-it with every receipt attached: 4% strict, 32% standard, 55% lenient. 12 still open. Thread:

1/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "And I think, shockingly, the most addictive technology of 2026—the narrative we might be talking about at the end of the year—is how addictive it is to just ma…"
2/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "A mass-market robotic pet succeeds by the end of 2026."
3/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "agentic development will be maybe by the end of the year inside of the app that you're actually using."
4/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "Kate expects most companies to have at least one dedicated role focused on building and maintaining internal AI systems by 2026—“someone whose job is to contin…"
5/ ✓ called it (provisional): "Natalia thinks the most advanced companies will have agentic workflows embedded in daily operations by year’s end"
6/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "Dan predicts a third kind of engineer: agentic engineers who fully delegate implementation to AI and move up a level to managing and orchestrating agents."
7/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "Anything a user can do in an app, an agent can also do. Then anything the app can do, the agent can do. Eventually, anything a developer can do—changing logic,…"
8/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "I would guess that they will find it valuable this year. Um specifically because coding agents are good enough that once they make their way into Excel in a wi…"
9/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "I don’t think any of the horses that are in the race will particularly stumble. I don’t think you’ll look up and go, Wow, I thought Cursor was fantastic—and it…"
10/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "What we're doing next year is um we're going to build this like unified memory and context layer where we have um we have a bunch of uh basically we can collec…"
11/ ✓ called it (provisional): "But I think next year is going to be much more negative on AI than this year, in general popular discourse."
12/ ✗ missed (provisional): "2026 is when agents go mainstream."
13/ ✓ called it (provisional): "There’s a whole class of highly creative, highly visual people who have been held back from making full experiences because they can’t code. Now they’re going…"
14/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "AGI, however you define that, is a lot more complicated and hard than we thought. And we will not have AGI in 2027."
15/ ✓ called it (provisional): "So I think that's going to actually happen a lot more in in 2026 is is we're going to um use training approaches and architectures that allow them to like go o…"
16/ ✓ called it (provisional): "I think we will definitely see um layoffs that companies blame on AI um in 2026"
17/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "and I think mostly they will not be actually AI related they will be about the underlying business but they'll use AI as a good excuse."
18/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "I think we'll hire next year, but I don't think we're going to hire a ton. Like the whole thing is like keep it small."
19/ ✓ called it (provisional): "if you are an engineer who wants to incorporate AI into your process but doesn't want to reinvent the skill of software engineering there's going to be a home…"
20/ ✓ called it (provisional): "I think midterms are going to be like kind of scary. Um because I think there's going to be deep fakes, which used to be a really scary word and now nobody tal…"
21/ ✗ missed (provisional): "if you then zoom out though that kind that style of engineering is going to be on a pretty slow and steady decline."
22/ ✗ missed (provisional): "And I think that’s going to hamper their product direction and velocity in a way that—if we look back in a couple years—we might say: that was an interesting e…"

23/ Every grade, bar and evidence row is here: runs/every/report.html. If you think a bar is unfair, say which one; the run is replayable and I will regrade.