# Draft self-review for Mike Ippolito (bar: standard)

A thread the subject could post. One line per claim, graded at the chosen bar, with the receipts linked. Edit freely; the numbers come from the run.

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My 2026 predictions break into 20 checkable claims. Here is how they scored as of 2026-10-24, graded at three bars by called-it with every receipt attached: 10% strict, 35% standard, 45% lenient. 9 still open. Thread:

1/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "4-5 new chains will get announced, Blackrock is one of them."
2/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "VCs will launch credit funds (which largely won't work), but real credit funds will become more active. They'll act as liquidators for RWAs and vault managers,…"
3/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "We'll see real pain in venture capital. Unflattering performance will get reported in media outlets, many will struggle to raise and 2 blue chip funds will clo…"
4/ ✗ missed (provisional): "Ethereum will completely reverse sentiment and have its best year since 2021."
5/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "L1 will have a renaissance in 2026 and largely win the market for RWA issuance."
6/ ✓ called it (provisional): "Base will begin to come under some amount of scrutiny after having largely been assumed to win the L2 war in 2025. The content coin push will fail, and there w…"
7/ ✓ called it (provisional): "Infrastructure will go through massive consolidation. L2 frameworks, RaaS, shared sequencing, etc… all compress into one category. These move from being though…"
8/ ✗ missed (provisional): "Passive liquidity provision in AMMs largely dies in 2026, first driven by the success of prop AMMs in Solana."
9/ ✗ missed (provisional): "Other CEXes will make inroads, Robinhood will continue to succed, Coinbase will fail."
10/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "Solana will have a mini crisis around non-meme price discovery not happening on their chain, which will resolve by EOY"
11/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "VC investment will be anemic. Expect a slightly diminished figure from 2025’s $25B, $12-$18B."
12/ ✓ called it (provisional): "despite that volume will continue to climb. Expect 2X from this year’s levels."
13/ ✓ called it (provisional): "REV will bottom around mid 2026, and start recovering into year end."
14/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "No new startups will be successful, but some sports betting apps will."
15/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "Despite the loud fanfare, equity perps will have a slow start in 2026 but will do better on CEX venues than DEXes. Expect <5% of perp volume by EOY."
16/ ○ too soon to say (provisional): "Vault AUM will grow but not an explosive amount from ~$5B today to $15-20B."
17/ ✓ called it (provisional): "It’s another bad year for onchain infrastructure. Most general purpose L2s or alt L1s completely fail to attract any new users or apps. Expect big pivots or ch…"
18/ ✓ called it (provisional): "It will be a bad year for Bitcoin sentiment, driven by outperformance in gold, quantum fears, and an overhang from DATs."
19/ ✗ missed (provisional): "Most existing solutions will not do well, ZEC was a one off and will have a bad 2026."
20/ ✓ called it (provisional): "Saylor’s reputation will take a hit, and Bitcoin’s weakness about “not being a productive asset” will gain steam again."

21/ Every grade, bar and evidence row is here: runs/ippolito/report.html. If you think a bar is unfair, say which one; the run is replayable and I will regrade.