🎯 called-it v1.0.0 · Mike Ippolito · 2026 · graded 2026-10-24 · jev-1.14.0

Mike Ippolito: 2026 predictions, graded

20 claims, each graded at three bars against evidence from 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-24. The strict bar is what a hostile critic would require, the lenient bar is the weakest reading a critic would still concede, and the gap between them is how much the grade depends on who is grading.

Strict

10%

2 met · 11 not met · 7 unresolved

Standard

35%

7 met · 4 not met · 9 unresolved

Lenient

45%

9 met · 2 not met · 9 unresolved

Generosity gap

35 pts

lenient minus strict

Ladder

#	Claim	Author	Strict	Standard	Lenient	Best evidence
c42	4-5 new chains will get announced, Blackrock is one of them.	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	T1RL1 (Regulated Layer One) press release
c29	VCs will launch credit funds (which largely won't work), but real credit funds will become more active. They'…	Mike Ippolito	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	✓ met provisional	T1Morpho Association announcement
c9	We'll see real pain in venture capital. Unflattering performance will get reported in media outlets, many wil…	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	T1Galaxy Research
c25	Ethereum will completely reverse sentiment and have its best year since 2021.	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	✗ not met provisional	✗ not met provisional	T1DQYDJ (CoinMarketCap data), ETH 2025 baseline
c26	L1 will have a renaissance in 2026 and largely win the market for RWA issuance.	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	T1rwa.xyz networks dashboard
c43	Base will begin to come under some amount of scrutiny after having largely been assumed to win the L2 war in…	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	✓ met provisional	✓ met provisional	T1L2BEAT total value secured
c38	Infrastructure will go through massive consolidation. L2 frameworks, RaaS, shared sequencing, etc… all compre…	Mike Ippolito	○ unresolved provisional	✓ met provisional	✓ met provisional	T1L2BEAT project page, Mint
c34	Passive liquidity provision in AMMs largely dies in 2026, first driven by the success of prop AMMs in Solana.	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	✗ not met provisional	○ unresolved provisional	T1Blockworks Advisory, Solana Token Holder Report Q2 2026 (PDF)
c15	Other CEXes will make inroads, Robinhood will continue to succed, Coinbase will fail.	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	✗ not met provisional	○ unresolved provisional	T1Coinbase Q2 2026 earnings deck (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1)
c35	Solana will have a mini crisis around non-meme price discovery not happening on their chain, which will resol…	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	T1Blockworks Advisory, Solana Token Holder Report Q3 2026 (PDF)
c11	VC investment will be anemic. Expect a slightly diminished figure from 2025’s $25B, $12-$18B.	Mike Ippolito	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	T1Galaxy Research
c13	despite that volume will continue to climb. Expect 2X from this year’s levels.	Mike Ippolito	✓ met provisional	✓ met provisional	✓ met provisional	T2KuCoin News (citing Odaily Planet Daily)
c33	REV will bottom around mid 2026, and start recovering into year end.	Mike Ippolito	✓ met provisional	✓ met provisional	✓ met provisional	T1Blockworks Advisory, Solana Token Holder Report Q2 2026 (PDF, data through June 2026)
c16	No new startups will be successful, but some sports betting apps will.	Mike Ippolito	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	T2Bettors Insider (reporting DraftKings figures)
c20	Despite the loud fanfare, equity perps will have a slow start in 2026 but will do better on CEX venues than D…	Mike Ippolito	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	○ unresolved provisional	T2CoinMarketCap Academy research, RWA Perpetuals State of the Market May 2026
c30	Vault AUM will grow but not an explosive amount from ~$5B today to $15-20B.	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	○ unresolved provisional	✓ met provisional	T2Crypto Briefing (reporting Blockworks vaults dashboard and Lagoon Finance)
c37	It’s another bad year for onchain infrastructure. Most general purpose L2s or alt L1s completely fail to attr…	Mike Ippolito	○ unresolved provisional	✓ met provisional	✓ met provisional	T2Crypto Briefing
c21	It will be a bad year for Bitcoin sentiment, driven by outperformance in gold, quantum fears, and an overhang…	Mike Ippolito	○ unresolved provisional	✓ met provisional	✓ met provisional	T1Trading Economics gold price page
c45	Most existing solutions will not do well, ZEC was a one off and will have a bad 2026.	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	✗ not met provisional	✗ not met provisional	T1CoinGecko API, ZEC end-2025 baseline
c22	Saylor’s reputation will take a hit, and Bitcoin’s weakness about “not being a productive asset” will gain st…	Mike Ippolito	✗ not met provisional	✓ met provisional	✓ met provisional	T1Yahoo Finance chart API (MSTR daily closes)

Claims

c42. 4-5 new chains will get announced, Blackrock is one of them.

4-5 new chains will get announced, Blackrock is one of them.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread) · split from c39

Context: Post 24, split from c39. Four or five new corporate chains are announced in 2026, including one by BlackRock.

Strict ✗ not met
Four or five new corporate chains were announced in 2026, and one of them is BlackRock's.
P(met) 0.05 · P(contradicted) 0.93 · evidence strength 1.75 of 2
Standard ○ unresolved
At least four new corporate chains were announced in 2026.
P(met) 0.08 · P(contradicted) 0.04 · evidence strength 1.69 of 2
Lenient ○ unresolved
Several new corporate chains, read as at least three, were announced in 2026.
P(met) 0.22 · P(contradicted) 0.05 · evidence strength 1.79 of 2

T1supports · 2026-07-28 · RL1 (Regulated Layer One) press release: “European blockchain initiative 'Regulated Layer One' goes live [...] owns and operates a private, permissioned blockchain network built for regulated financial markets. [Founding institutions: ABN AMRO, Cecabank, Charte…”
T2neutral · 2026-07-29 · CryptoNinjas: “RL1 opened its doors as a European Cooperative Society (SCE) [headquartered in Luxembourg, July 28]. [Runs on SWIAT's distributed ledger technology, which has operated in production for about three years; the earlier SW…”
T2contradicts [strict] · 2026-09-21 · Fortune: “[Circle's Arc public launch] inaugural validators, including Visa, Mastercard and BlackRock. [Chains named: Arc (Circle), Canton (JPMorgan-backed, partners Nasdaq, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas), Tempo (Stripe), Robinhood…”

c29. VCs will launch credit funds (which largely won't work), but real credit funds will become more active. They'll act as liquidators for RWAs…

VCs will launch credit funds (which largely won't work), but real credit funds will become more active. They'll act as liquidators for RWAs and vault managers, 2-3 Apollo size funds will make big pushes in.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 16. Two or three large traditional credit managers (Apollo-scale) make major onchain credit moves in 2026.

Strict ○ unresolved
Two or three credit managers of Apollo's scale made big pushes into onchain credit in 2026.
no evidence gathered
Standard ○ unresolved
At least two large traditional credit managers made notable onchain credit moves in 2026.
P(met) 0.14 · P(contradicted) 0.49 · evidence strength 1.79 of 2
Lenient ✓ met
At least one large traditional credit manager made a notable new onchain credit move in 2026.
P(met) 0.72 · P(contradicted) 0.06 · evidence strength 1.95 of 2

T1supports [lenient, standard] · 2026-02-13 · Morpho Association announcement: “subject to an overall ownership cap of 90 million MORPHO tokens over a 48-month period [...] Apollo and Morpho will be working together to support onchain lending markets on Morpho's protocol.”
T2supports [lenient, standard] · 2026-02-16 · Cointelegraph: “Apollo or its affiliates may buy up to 90 million MORPHO governance tokens over four years [...] 9% of the 1 billion-token supply [...] Apollo [has] nearly $940 billion in assets under management.”
T2neutral [standard, lenient] · 2026-06-07 · Crypto Briefing: “In early June 2026, Securitize launched a tokenized private credit fund based on Hamilton Lane's strategy, deployed on the TRON blockchain. [Hamilton Lane manages hundreds of billions in private markets assets.] Active…”

c9. We'll see real pain in venture capital. Unflattering performance will get reported in media outlets, many will struggle to raise and 2 blue…

We'll see real pain in venture capital. Unflattering performance will get reported in media outlets, many will struggle to raise and 2 blue chip funds will close.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 6. The checkable core is two blue-chip crypto VC funds closing (winding down or ceasing new investment) in 2026.

Strict ✗ not met
Two blue-chip crypto venture firms closed in 2026, and reporting documented widespread fundraising pain across crypto VC.
P(met) 0.05 · P(contradicted) 0.87 · evidence strength 1.65 of 2
Standard ○ unresolved
At least two recognised crypto venture firms wound down or stopped making new investments in 2026.
P(met) 0.05 · P(contradicted) 0.17 · evidence strength 1.00 of 2
Lenient ○ unresolved
At least one recognised crypto venture firm wound down in 2026 and reporting described fundraising difficulty across crypto VC.
P(met) 0.43 · P(contradicted) 0.12 · evidence strength 1.56 of 2

T1supports [strict, lenient] · 2026-05-28 · Galaxy Research: “Raising new venture funds remains incredibly difficult, and Q1 saw the fewest new crypto VC funds raised since Q3 2020. [...] the total capital allocated to crypto-focused venture funds was roughly $1.1 billion across e…”
T2contradicts [strict] · 2026-05-05 · Fortune: “a16z crypto announced Tuesday morning that it's drummed up $2.2 billion for its fifth venture fund [vs] the $4.5 billion a16z crypto raised for its fourth vehicle in 2022. [...] Still, the top crypto investors have been…”
T2neutral · 2026-10-08 · CoinDesk: “Crypto and fintech investment firm Deus X Capital has ceased operations as its backers pursue separate investment strategies [...] will cease operations and formally unwind on Jan. 31, 2027. Debuted in October 2023 with…”

c25. Ethereum will completely reverse sentiment and have its best year since 2021.

Ethereum will completely reverse sentiment and have its best year since 2021.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 14, first sentence. ETH's 2026 performance (price and sentiment) is its best since 2021.

Strict ✗ not met
2026 is Ethereum's best year since 2021: ETH's return beats each of 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and sentiment flipped positive.
P(met) 0.01 · P(contradicted) 0.99 · evidence strength 1.94 of 2
Standard ✗ not met
ETH's 2026 return beats its 2024 and 2025 returns.
P(met) 0.04 · P(contradicted) 0.97 · evidence strength 1.97 of 2
Lenient ✗ not met
Ethereum had a clearly better year than 2025: ETH's 2026 return is positive and above its 2025 return.
P(met) 0.01 · P(contradicted) 0.99 · evidence strength 1.98 of 2

T1neutral · 2025-12-31 · DQYDJ (CoinMarketCap data), ETH 2025 baseline: “Ethereum returned -10.96% in 2025 [in US Dollar terms]. January 1, 2025 opening: $3,332.41; December 31, 2025 closing: $2,967.04”
T1contradicts · 2026-10-24 · CoinGecko API: “Ethereum (ETH): $2,342.89 (-2.09% in 24h). [Versus $2,967.04 at end-2025 that is about -21% year to date, worse than 2025's -10.96% and worse than bitcoin's roughly -8%.]”
T2contradicts · 2026-06-16 · IG: “[ETH] down 32% year-to-date [vs] Bitcoin's 11% decline [...] approximately 0.027, a 10-month low [ETH/BTC] [...] Bankless co-founder David Hoffman publicly sold his entire ETH holdings in June 2026 [...] a high-profile…”
T2contradicts [lenient] · 2026-10-19 · CryptoTicker: “one ETH buys 0.0293 Bitcoin after five weeks of losses against BTC [October 19, 2026]; 12-month low 0.0248 on June 7, 2026; ETH around $2,400 on October 19”

c26. L1 will have a renaissance in 2026 and largely win the market for RWA issuance.

L1 will have a renaissance in 2026 and largely win the market for RWA issuance.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 14, second sentence. Ethereum mainnet holds the majority of tokenized real-world asset value at end of 2026.

Strict ✗ not met
Ethereum mainnet largely won RWA issuance in 2026: it captured the majority of the tokenized real-world asset value added during the year and ended with a higher share than it started.
P(met) 0.02 · P(contradicted) 0.98 · evidence strength 1.96 of 2
Standard ○ unresolved
Ethereum mainnet gained share of tokenized real-world assets in 2026 and remains the largest chain.
P(met) 0.17 · P(contradicted) 0.05 · evidence strength 1.81 of 2
Lenient ○ unresolved
Ethereum, counting mainnet and its L2s, held or gained share of tokenized real-world assets in 2026 and remains the largest ecosystem.
P(met) 0.24 · P(contradicted) 0.06 · evidence strength 1.78 of 2

T1contradicts [strict] · 2026-10-24 · rwa.xyz networks dashboard: “Ethereum RWA Total Value (Excl. Stablecoins) $15,990,996,441; RWA Value (Distributed) $15,884,627,706; page summary Distributed Asset Value ($39.06B). [Ethereum is about 40.7% of distributed RWA value, below half.]”
T1supports [standard] · 2026-10-24 · rwa.xyz networks dashboard: “Ethereum $15,990,996,441; BNB Chain $6,221,150,680; Solana $4,994,986,234; Stellar $3,831,606,400; Avalanche $12,992,505,446 total but RWA Value (Distributed) $1,589,004,149 (12.2%); XRP Ledger $5,378,633,103 total, $64…”
T1supports [lenient] · 2026-10-24 · rwa.xyz networks dashboard: “Ethereum L2 distributed RWA value: ZKsync Era $943,984,846; Arbitrum $836,634,100; Polygon $507,044,247; Base $363,166,254; Mantle $226,701,879; Ink $37,413,891; Optimism $26,629,420. [Ethereum mainnet plus these L2s is…”
T2contradicts [strict] · 2026-08-07 · Crypto Briefing (rwa.xyz data): “[early June 2026] Ethereum held approximately $16.6 billion in distributed tokenized RWA value, representing 52.85% of the entire on-chain RWA market [...] By early August 2026, the total distributed RWA value across al…”

c43. Base will begin to come under some amount of scrutiny after having largely been assumed to win the L2 war in 2025. The content coin push wi…

Base will begin to come under some amount of scrutiny after having largely been assumed to win the L2 war in 2025. The content coin push will fail, and there will be an existential crisis around not winning any category.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 25. Base faces criticism in 2026 and its content-coin initiative fails to gain traction.

Strict ✗ not met
Base came under real scrutiny in 2026: its content-coin push failed, major outlets ran critical coverage of its strategy, and it lost its lead in at least one major L2 category.
P(met) 0.17 · P(contradicted) 0.96 · evidence strength 1.83 of 2
Standard ✓ met
Base's content-coin push faded sharply in 2026 and major outlets ran critical coverage of Base's strategy.
P(met) 0.90 · P(contradicted) 0.04 · evidence strength 1.63 of 2
Lenient ✓ met
Base's content-coin push faded in 2026, with activity well below its 2025 peak.
P(met) 0.94 · P(contradicted) 0.02 · evidence strength 1.07 of 2

T1contradicts [strict] · 2026-10-24 · L2BEAT total value secured: “1 Base Chain $14.87 B; 2 Arbitrum One $10.07 B; 3 OP Mainnet $1.76 B; 4 Mantle $1.29 B; 5 Lighter $1.08 B; 6 Ink $367.51 M. [Base remains first among L2s by TVS.]”
T1contradicts [strict] · 2026-10-24 · DefiLlama chains API: “Base tvl 6020790483.2677555; Arbitrum 1438992640.7707756; Robinhood Chain 1135063816.903437; OP Mainnet 415890957.73989296; Ink 199854487.91379032; Ethereum 48561113394.278755. [Base is first among L2s by DeFi TVL.]”
T2supports [strict, standard] · 2026-07-13 · Crypto Briefing: “[Brian Armstrong said the company] messed up [and acknowledged that Base's content coin initiatives did not succeed; Base pivoted away from content coins earlier this year to focus on infrastructure, payments, and AI ag…”
T2supports · 2026-07-16 · Mitrade (Zora dashboard data and Jesse Pollak posts on X): “Daily trading volume fell to $112,170 on July 15, down 99.8% from a $63 million peak in April 2025. Coins minted: 852 on July 15, down from a peak of 118,069 in January 2026. Daily creators fell from 32,286 on February…”

c38. Infrastructure will go through massive consolidation. L2 frameworks, RaaS, shared sequencing, etc… all compress into one category. These mo…

Infrastructure will go through massive consolidation. L2 frameworks, RaaS, shared sequencing, etc… all compress into one category. These move from being thought of as ecosystems to CoSS, similar to Redhat. 2-3 vertically integrated solutions will emerge and do well.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 23. Consolidation (mergers, acquisitions, shutdowns) among L2 frameworks and rollup-as-a-service providers in 2026.

Strict ○ unresolved
Infrastructure consolidated heavily in 2026: at least three mergers, acquisitions or shutdowns among L2 framework, rollup-as-a-service or shared-sequencing providers.
P(met) 0.24 · P(contradicted) 0.68 · evidence strength 1.87 of 2
Standard ✓ met
At least two mergers, acquisitions or shutdowns among L2 framework, rollup-as-a-service or shared-sequencing providers in 2026.
P(met) 0.75 · P(contradicted) 0.07 · evidence strength 1.68 of 2
Lenient ✓ met
At least one notable merger, acquisition or shutdown among such infrastructure providers in 2026.
P(met) 0.86 · P(contradicted) 0.03 · evidence strength 1.72 of 2

T1neutral [standard, lenient] · 2026-04-17 · L2BEAT project page, Mint: “Mint Blockchain shutdown (announced 2026-04-17, withdrawal deadline 2026-10-20) [...] Built on OP Stack [...] ceased operations on April 17, 2026 and only supports withdrawals [...] Any assets left on the chain after th…”
T1neutral [standard, lenient] · 2026-07-01 · Alchemy developer docs, Polygon zkEVM deprecation notice: “Polygon Labs shut down the Polygon zkEVM network on July 1, 2026 [...] There is no migration path for Polygon zkEVM, as the network itself was shut down. [Shutdown executed in 2026; the sunset was announced in 2025.]”
T2supports · 2026-05-21 · Cointelegraph: “Syndicate Labs is winding down after five years of building onchain infrastructure for customizable Ethereum rollups and sequencers [...] the rollup market has fundamentally shifted [...] for every new rollup launching,…”
T2neutral [strict] · 2026-10-06 · The Block: “[Abstract] said it will wind down operations and shut down the chain on Dec. 15, 2026 [...] comes less than a week after Paradigm-backed Layer 2 Blast said it will wind down [L2 chain shutdowns; no merger or acquisition…”

c34. Passive liquidity provision in AMMs largely dies in 2026, first driven by the success of prop AMMs in Solana.

Passive liquidity provision in AMMs largely dies in 2026, first driven by the success of prop AMMs in Solana.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 20, first sentence. Passive LP share of DEX volume falls sharply in 2026 as proprietary AMMs take share, starting on Solana.

Strict ✗ not met
Passive AMM liquidity provision largely died in 2026, led by Solana: proprietary AMMs carry most Solana DEX volume and passive LP share fell substantially across major chains.
P(met) 0.03 · P(contradicted) 0.90 · evidence strength 1.79 of 2
Standard ✗ not met
Passive liquidity provision lost most of its share of Solana DEX volume in 2026.
P(met) 0.38 · P(contradicted) 0.80 · evidence strength 1.72 of 2
Lenient ○ unresolved
Passive liquidity provision lost share of Solana DEX volume during 2026 and was described as in decline.
P(met) 0.40 · P(contradicted) 0.12 · evidence strength 1.08 of 2

T1supports [standard, lenient] · 2026-06-30 · Blockworks Advisory, Solana Token Holder Report Q2 2026 (PDF): “DEXs on Solana remain a prop AMM story. [...] With close to twenty prop AMMs live on Solana, their share of spot DEX volume sat at 53% in Q2 2026, up from 30% in Q2 2025. [...] BisonFi led prop AMMs with roughly 17% of…”
T1contradicts [strict, standard] · 2026-10-15 · Blockworks Advisory, Solana Token Holder Report Q3 2026 (PDF): “Prop AMMs remained the largest exchange type on Solana. [...] Their share of spot DEX volume was 40% in Q3, down from 51% in Q2, as memecoin flow concentrated on constant-product pools, whose share rose to 18% from 10%.…”
T1neutral [strict, standard] · 2026-10-24 · DefiLlama DEX overview API, Solana, 30-day volumes: “Solana total30d = 64479317950.59003. Prop AMMs: BisonFi 8598420577; Tessera V 3563783139; GoonFi 2216776002; HumidiFi 1217129892; SolFi V2 998393676; AlphaQ 974053875; QuantumAMM 788065766; ZeroFi 768934025; Aquifer 433…”

c15. Other CEXes will make inroads, Robinhood will continue to succed, Coinbase will fail.

Other CEXes will make inroads, Robinhood will continue to succed, Coinbase will fail.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 9, second sentence. Checkable parts: Robinhood's prediction-market business grows; Coinbase's prediction-market effort does not gain traction.

Strict ✗ not met
Robinhood's prediction markets kept succeeding in 2026 and Coinbase's failed.
P(met) 0.31 · P(contradicted) 0.08 · evidence strength 1.85 of 2
Standard ✗ not met
Robinhood's prediction-market business grew in 2026 and Coinbase's did not gain meaningful traction.
P(met) 0.22 · P(contradicted) 0.98 · evidence strength 1.88 of 2
Lenient ○ unresolved
Coinbase's prediction-market effort did not become a meaningful competitor to Kalshi or Polymarket in 2026.
P(met) 0.33 · P(contradicted) 0.55 · evidence strength 1.73 of 2

T1contradicts [standard, lenient] · 2026-06-30 · Coinbase Q2 2026 earnings deck (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1): “Everything Exchange: Prediction markets contracts and revenue up over 2x Q/Q [...] $100M+ Annualized prediction markets revenue in Q2 [...] Sports continue to lead, followed by crypto [...] New crypto binaries experienc…”
T2supports [lenient] · 2026-07-23 · KuCoin News (citing Odaily): “Kalshi generated $263.5 million in fee revenue last year, with annualized revenue now exceeding $1.5 billion. [Comparator: Coinbase's own deck reports $100M+ annualized prediction-market revenue, and Coinbase's contract…”
T2supports [strict, standard] · 2026-07-29 · The Block: “The trading platform said it generated $156 million from event contracts, compared with $100 million from cryptocurrency trading, which fell 38% from the same period a year ago.”
T2supports [strict, standard] · 2026-07-29 · FX News Group (quoting Robinhood Q2 2026 results release): “Event Contracts Traded increased over 10x year-over-year to a record 13.6 billion. [...] event contracts revenue of $156 million, up over 10x”

c35. Solana will have a mini crisis around non-meme price discovery not happening on their chain, which will resolve by EOY

Solana will have a mini crisis around non-meme price discovery not happening on their chain, which will resolve by EOY

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 20, second paragraph. A visible debate or crisis about Solana's role in non-memecoin price discovery during 2026.

Strict ✗ not met
Solana had a mini crisis in 2026 over non-meme price discovery not happening on its chain, and by year end a major non-memecoin asset launched and traded primarily on Solana.
P(met) 0.02 · P(contradicted) 0.70 · evidence strength 1.74 of 2
Standard ○ unresolved
A widely covered debate took place in 2026 about non-meme price discovery not happening on Solana.
P(met) 0.15 · P(contradicted) 0.29 · evidence strength 1.58 of 2
Lenient ○ unresolved
The concern that non-meme price discovery is not happening on Solana was raised publicly in 2026 by a prominent figure or outlet.
P(met) 0.46 · P(contradicted) 0.25 · evidence strength 1.65 of 2

T1neutral [strict] · 2026-10-15 · Blockworks Advisory, Solana Token Holder Report Q3 2026 (PDF): “tokenized equities set a new all-time high of $4.4B in September alone, taking the category to a record $7.1B for the quarter, up 40% QoQ. [...] SOL-stablecoin pairs remained the anchor at roughly 40% of volume, while m…”
T2neutral · 2026-02-03 · The Block (Standard Chartered note): “Kendrick lowered his end-2026 price forecast for Solana from $310 to $250 [...] Solana is evolving from memecoins to micropayments [...] the mix of flows on DEXs has shifted from memecoin trading towards SOL-stablecoin…”
T2supports [lenient, standard] · 2026-07-29 · CoinDesk opinion, Brian Smith, president of the Jito Foundation: “[Onchain perps venues] contributed to price discovery [for the Cerebras Systems and SpaceX IPOs; SpaceX's perps-implied price of $171 matched its $171 launch price]. Solana and Hyperliquid are where SpaceX tokenized sto…”

c11. VC investment will be anemic. Expect a slightly diminished figure from 2025’s $25B, $12-$18B.

VC investment will be anemic. Expect a slightly diminished figure from 2025’s $25B, $12-$18B.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 7. Total 2026 crypto venture investment lands between $12B and $18B, down from about $25B in 2025. Numeric; trackers differ (Galaxy, PitchBook, The Block, DefiLlama).

Strict ○ unresolved
2026 crypto venture investment comes in between $12B and $18B.
P(met) 0.03 · P(contradicted) 0.51 · evidence strength 1.03 of 2
Standard ○ unresolved
2026 crypto venture investment is a diminished year: on pace for a total below 2025's roughly $25B but above $10B.
P(met) 0.18 · P(contradicted) 0.35 · evidence strength 1.31 of 2
Lenient ○ unresolved
2026 crypto venture investment is on pace to come in below 2025's total.
P(met) 0.54 · P(contradicted) 0.22 · evidence strength 1.34 of 2

T1supports [standard, lenient] · 2026-05-28 · Galaxy Research: “In total, VCs deployed $4 billion into private crypto and blockchain-related companies across 355 deals. [...] the Q1 2026 run-rate is below 2025's nearly $20 billion annual total”
T2contradicts [strict] · 2026-09-17 · crypto.news (reporting Galaxy Research Q2 2026 report of Sep 16, 2026): “Q2 2026: $5.683 billion across 384 deals; H1 2026: $10.018 billion across 744 deals; full-year 2026 projection if the first-half pace holds: roughly $20.037 billion. Annualised H1 is above the $12B-$18B range.”
T2neutral [standard, lenient] · 2026-09-17 · crypto.news (reporting Galaxy Research): “2025 total cited: $20.3 billion for crypto venture investment (Galaxy's 2025 baseline; Ippolito's thread used $25B). 2026 projection roughly $20.037 billion, i.e. roughly flat to slightly below Galaxy's own 2025 total.”

c13. despite that volume will continue to climb. Expect 2X from this year’s levels.

despite that volume will continue to climb. Expect 2X from this year’s levels.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread) · split from c12

Context: Post 8, second part, split from c12. Prediction-market volume (Polymarket plus Kalshi) in 2026 is about double 2025's.

Strict ✓ met
Prediction-market volume in 2026 is about double 2025's.
P(met) 0.81 · P(contradicted) 0.04 · evidence strength 1.86 of 2
Standard ✓ met
Prediction-market volume in 2026 grew strongly, at least 1.5x 2025's.
P(met) 0.76 · P(contradicted) 0.03 · evidence strength 1.85 of 2
Lenient ✓ met
Prediction-market volume grew strongly in 2026, by at least a third over 2025.
P(met) 0.86 · P(contradicted) 0.02 · evidence strength 1.85 of 2

T2supports · 2026-07-01 · The Block: “$44.8 billion in combined monthly trading volume in June [2026, across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US; May 2026 was $25.66 billion]. Kalshi: growing 87.4% to $31.5 billion from $16.81 billion. Polymarket's main, n…”
T2supports · 2026-07-23 · KuCoin News (citing Odaily Planet Daily): “2025 baseline: Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined trading volume of over $44 billion in 2025. [...] Kalshi generated $263.5 million in fee revenue last year, with annualized revenue now exceeding $1.5 billion.”
T2supports · 2026-09-02 · The Block: “the combined monthly volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US fell 14.5% in August to $45.33 billion [...] the first decline since August 2025. Kalshi recorded $37.17 billion in volume in August, down 7.3% from $4…”

c33. REV will bottom around mid 2026, and start recovering into year end.

REV will bottom around mid 2026, and start recovering into year end.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 19, third paragraph. Solana's real economic value (fees plus tips) troughs around mid-2026 and rises in H2.

Strict ✓ met
Solana REV bottomed around mid-2026 and has been recovering into year end.
P(met) 0.70 · P(contradicted) 0.07 · evidence strength 1.89 of 2
Standard ✓ met
Solana REV reached its 2026 low around the middle of the year and has risen since.
P(met) 0.86 · P(contradicted) 0.07 · evidence strength 1.86 of 2
Lenient ✓ met
Solana REV has recovered from a trough at some point in 2026.
P(met) 0.98 · P(contradicted) 0.02 · evidence strength 1.87 of 2

T1supports · 2026-06-30 · Blockworks Advisory, Solana Token Holder Report Q2 2026 (PDF, data through June 2026): “Solana's Real Economic Value (REV) totaled $51.0M in Q2 2026, down 43% from Q1's $89.8M. [...] monthly REV declined from $18.6M in April to $18.1M in May and $14.3M in June.”
T1supports · 2026-10-15 · Blockworks Advisory, Solana Token Holder Report Q3 2026 (PDF): “Solana's Real Economic Value (REV) totaled $75.7M in Q3 2026, up 48% from Q2's $51.0M and the first quarterly increase since Q4 2024. The recovery strengthened every month, with REV rising from $19.1M in July to $26.5M…”
T2supports · 2026-10-16 · KuCoin (coverage of the Blockworks Q3 2026 report published October 15, 2026): “Solana's real economic value (REV) increased 48% quarter over quarter to $75.7 million [...] monthly application revenue reached $117.1 million and REV reached $30.1 million [September 2026]. Solana's DEX volume rose 23…”

c16. No new startups will be successful, but some sports betting apps will.

No new startups will be successful, but some sports betting apps will.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 9, third sentence. No new prediction-market startup reaches meaningful volume in 2026, while sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel) launch and gain traction.

Strict ○ unresolved
No new prediction-market startup succeeded in 2026, while at least one major sports-betting app did.
P(met) 0.37 · P(contradicted) 0.31 · evidence strength 1.90 of 2
Standard ○ unresolved
No new prediction-market startup broke into the top tier in 2026, and at least one major sportsbook launched prediction markets.
P(met) 0.66 · P(contradicted) 0.21 · evidence strength 1.93 of 2
Lenient ○ unresolved
No new prediction-market startup rivalled Kalshi or Polymarket in 2026, and at least one major sportsbook entered prediction markets.
P(met) 0.47 · P(contradicted) 0.11 · evidence strength 1.86 of 2

T2neutral [strict, standard] · 2026-05-01 · KuCoin News (Dune data), seen in search result; page fetch failed: “Kalshi recorded $5.42 billion in taker volume in April 2026, passing Polymarket's $1.99 billion for the first time. (Same Dune dataset as summarized in the search result: Predict.fun third with $579.2 million, Opinion $…”
T2neutral · 2026-06-09 · InGame: “FanDuel does not publish exact volume numbers from its exchange [...] CME has averaged around $4 million worth of contracts traded per day [...] DraftKings reported annualized May volume of $3.1 billion [about $8.5 mill…”
T2neutral [strict, standard] · 2026-06-17 · The Block: “Limitless now clears close to $2 billion in monthly volume, according to Bernstein. [Against ~$44.8B combined Kalshi/Polymarket volume in June 2026 that is roughly 4%; Limitless launched in 2024, so it may not meet the…”
T2supports · 2026-06-19 · Bettors Insider (reporting DraftKings figures): “$1.3 billion in annualized consumer volume during May [...] a 24 percent increase from April [...] December 2025 launch [in 38 states]. DraftKings still trails Kalshi and Polymarket in total volume.”

c20. Despite the loud fanfare, equity perps will have a slow start in 2026 but will do better on CEX venues than DEXes. Expect <5% of perp volum…

Despite the loud fanfare, equity perps will have a slow start in 2026 but will do better on CEX venues than DEXes. Expect <5% of perp volume by EOY.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 11. Tokenized-equity perpetuals are under 5% of total perp volume at end of 2026, with CEXes ahead of DEXes.

Strict ○ unresolved
Equity perps had a slow 2026: under 5% of perp volume at year end, with centralized venues ahead of decentralized ones.
P(met) 0.06 · P(contradicted) 0.10 · evidence strength 1.05 of 2
Standard ○ unresolved
Equity perps are under 5% of perp volume at the latest 2026 reading.
P(met) 0.31 · P(contradicted) 0.09 · evidence strength 1.79 of 2
Lenient ○ unresolved
Equity perps remained a small minority of perp volume in 2026, read as under 10%.
P(met) 0.52 · P(contradicted) 0.08 · evidence strength 1.86 of 2

T2supports [strict] · 2026-05-20 · CoinMarketCap Academy research, RWA Perpetuals State of the Market May 2026: “overall split is 72% CEX and 28% DEX across all RWA perps [...] Binance leads stocks-perp volume cumulatively at 32% of category [...] HIP-3 is the largest DEX at 18%. [...] Only 4.1% of RWA-perp volume in this dataset…”
T2neutral · 2026-05-20 · CoinMarketCap Academy research: “stocks-perp volume has gone from $2.7B/week in late January to $15.6B in the week of May 11 [...] Stock RWA perps have risen from ~5% to ~28% of weekly volume in four months [share of RWA-perp volume, not of total crypt…”
T2supports [standard, lenient] · 2026-07-13 · Cointelegraph (CryptoQuant and CryptoRank data): “$1.61 trillion in futures trading volume in June [Binance; May $893 billion]; OKX $609 billion; Bybit $434 billion. The Q2 2026 total [CEX futures] is $15.7 trillion. [Denominator for the equity-perp share; see e20.]”
T2supports [standard, lenient] · 2026-07-29 · TradeInformer (reporting CoinGecko/MEXC TradFi-on-CEX report): “June 2026 TradFi volume across six CEXs (Binance, MEXC, Bitget, OKX, Gate, and Bybit): $393.15 billion, up from $3.46 billion in January 2025. Perpetual futures: $387.39 billion of the June total. U.S. stock volume rose…”

c30. Vault AUM will grow but not an explosive amount from ~$5B today to $15-20B.

Vault AUM will grow but not an explosive amount from ~$5B today to $15-20B.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 17. Onchain vault (asset-management) AUM ends 2026 at $15B to $20B, from about $5B at the start of the year.

Strict ✗ not met
Onchain vault AUM reached $15B to $20B in 2026.
P(met) 0.03 · P(contradicted) 0.70 · evidence strength 1.90 of 2
Standard ○ unresolved
Onchain vault AUM reached at least $12B in 2026, close to the bottom of his range.
P(met) 0.38 · P(contradicted) 0.40 · evidence strength 1.81 of 2
Lenient ✓ met
Onchain vault AUM grew meaningfully in 2026, read as at least 50% growth.
P(met) 0.85 · P(contradicted) 0.13 · evidence strength 1.90 of 2

T2contradicts · 2026-07-20 · Crypto Briefing (reporting Blockworks vaults dashboard and Lagoon Finance): “roughly $7 billion in assets under management [tracked by Blockworks' Vaults Overview] across 24 blockchain networks, 59 curators and 132 distinct assets. [Separately, broader figure:] By March 2026, vault AUM across th…”
T2neutral · 2026-08-25 · Cryptopolitan (reporting vaults.fyi State of Vaults report of Aug 24, 2026 and a DefiLlama/Sentora study): “$11.29 billion [curated vaults], with data current as of August 20; 856 vaults, 131 curators, and 18 protocols. Morpho 46.2% of curated TVL. DefiLlama alternative: $7.18 billion across 55 tracked curators (Sentora data…”

c37. It’s another bad year for onchain infrastructure. Most general purpose L2s or alt L1s completely fail to attract any new users or apps. Exp…

It’s another bad year for onchain infrastructure. Most general purpose L2s or alt L1s completely fail to attract any new users or apps. Expect big pivots or changes in the business model from several large protocols by EOY.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 22. Several large infrastructure protocols announce pivots or business-model changes during 2026.

Strict ○ unresolved
2026 was another bad year for onchain infrastructure: at least three large protocols announced major pivots, and general-purpose chains broadly failed to grow their users.
P(met) 0.27 · P(contradicted) 0.07 · evidence strength 1.98 of 2
Standard ✓ met
At least two large infrastructure protocols announced major pivots or business-model changes in 2026.
P(met) 0.97 · P(contradicted) 0.01 · evidence strength 1.98 of 2
Lenient ✓ met
At least one large infrastructure protocol announced a major pivot or business-model change in 2026.
P(met) 0.98 · P(contradicted) 0.01 · evidence strength 1.98 of 2

T2neutral · 2026-02-03 · The Block: “the original vision of L2s and their role in Ethereum no longer makes sense [Vitalik Buterin] [...] We should stop thinking about L2s as literally being 'branded shards' of Ethereum [...] identify a value add other than…”
T2supports · 2026-03-12 · The Block: “[OP Labs laid off 20 employees, roughly 19.6% of staff.] This is not about finances. [CEO Jing Wang:] doing fewer things well, making decisions faster, and reducing coordination overhead. [Base announced in February 202…”
T2supports · 2026-08-27 · Crypto Briefing: “The transition will come with the closure of the Lisk Chain on Oct. 31, 2026. [Lisk is moving to] a financial platform designed to help businesses manage fiat and stablecoin operations. [Proposal includes] burning 100 m…”
T2supports · 2026-10-02 · CoinDesk: “Blast said it will shut down after concluding that its Ethereum layer-2 network no longer makes economic sense to operate. [...] the economics of operating the chain no longer make sense. [TVL peak over $2 billion in Ju…”
T2supports [standard, lenient] · 2026-10-06 · The Block: “[Abstract] said it will wind down operations and shut down the chain on Dec. 15, 2026 [...] Parent company Igloo Inc. lost tens of millions of dollars [...] stagnant growth, thin liquidity, a restricted DeFi ecosystem a…”

c21. It will be a bad year for Bitcoin sentiment, driven by outperformance in gold, quantum fears, and an overhang from DATs.

It will be a bad year for Bitcoin sentiment, driven by outperformance in gold, quantum fears, and an overhang from DATs.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 12, first sentence. Bitcoin sentiment is poor in 2026; gold outperforms bitcoin over the year.

Strict ○ unresolved
2026 was a bad year for Bitcoin sentiment: gold outperformed bitcoin, bitcoin is down for the year, and sentiment measures were predominantly negative.
P(met) 0.60 · P(contradicted) 0.69 · evidence strength 1.97 of 2
Standard ✓ met
Gold outperformed bitcoin in 2026 and bitcoin sentiment was described as poor for much of the year.
P(met) 0.73 · P(contradicted) 0.41 · evidence strength 1.95 of 2
Lenient ✓ met
Either gold outperformed bitcoin in 2026 or bitcoin spent most of 2026 below its end-2025 price.
P(met) 0.98 · P(contradicted) 0.02 · evidence strength 1.96 of 2

T1neutral · 2025-12-31 · DQYDJ (CoinMarketCap data), BTC end-2025 baseline: “In 2025, bitcoin returned -6.33% in US dollar terms [...] opening trade $93,425.10 [...] closing trade $87,508.83 [...] October 6, 2025, bitcoin set a new all-time high with a trade of $126,198.07.”
T1supports · 2026-10-23 · Trading Economics gold price page: “3,993.96 USD/t.oz [October 23, 2026]; down 2.87% compared to the same time last year; all-time high of 5608.35 (January 2026). [Versus the $4,318.65 end-2025 close this is about -7.5% year to date.]”
T1supports · 2026-10-24 · CoinGecko API: “Bitcoin (BTC): $80,480 (-0.94% in 24h). [Versus the $87,508.83 close on December 31, 2025 that is about -8.0% year to date, below the end-2025 price; gold's -7.5% is marginally better, so the gold-vs-bitcoin margin is a…”
T2neutral · 2025-12-31 · Odaily (BullionVault data), gold end-2025 baseline: “Spot gold closing price, December 31, 2025: $4,318.65 per ounce; closed down 0.46%; 2025 annual gain approximately 65%.”
T2supports [strict, standard] · 2026-02-12 · Yahoo Finance (CCN): “On Feb. 6, 2026, the Crypto Fear and Greed index hit an all-time low of 5, reflecting the deepest level of fear in its recorded history. [BTC] plummeted to a low of $60,062 on Feb. 6, 2026”
T2supports · 2026-07-20 · Stocktwits News: “Bitcoin down nearly 27% [year to date]; gold down more than 7% [year to date]. Charlie Bilello of Creative Planning: This is something we haven't seen before in any calendar year.”
T2neutral [strict, standard] · 2026-08-25 · Decrypt: “Fear and Greed Index reading: 81, classified as extreme greed (CoinMarketCap index); a month earlier 36, firmly in the fear zone. Bitcoin broke $70,000 during a short squeeze.”

c45. Most existing solutions will not do well, ZEC was a one off and will have a bad 2026.

Most existing solutions will not do well, ZEC was a one off and will have a bad 2026.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread) · split from c44

Context: Post 26, second part, split from c44. Zcash (ZEC) underperforms in 2026 after its late-2025 rally.

Strict ✗ not met
ZEC had a bad 2026: down for the year and worse than bitcoin.
P(met) 0.02 · P(contradicted) 0.98 · evidence strength 1.96 of 2
Standard ✗ not met
ZEC is down for 2026.
P(met) 0.02 · P(contradicted) 0.98 · evidence strength 1.96 of 2
Lenient ✗ not met
ZEC fell well below its late-2025 peak during 2026.
P(met) 0.17 · P(contradicted) 0.98 · evidence strength 1.97 of 2

T1neutral · 2025-12-31 · CoinGecko API, ZEC end-2025 baseline: “market_data.current_price.usd: 527.9267845948881 [snapshot for 31-12-2025]”
T1contradicts · 2026-10-24 · CoinGecko API: “market_data.current_price.usd: 1207.95; price_change_percentage_200d: 339.2633; price_change_percentage_30d: -22.31223; market_cap_rank: 10; last_updated 2026-10-24T20:11:41.000Z. [About +129% versus $527.93 at end-2025…”
T2neutral [lenient] · 2026-01-08 · Cointelegraph: “[ZEC] slid more than 20% on Thursday to about $381 [after the] sudden resignation [of the core development team from the Electric Coin Company; sell-off from the $550-$580 region after a] 1,000%-plus rally in late 2025.…”
T2contradicts · 2026-09-05 · Stocktwits News: “Intraday high: $1,021.58 on Sept. 4 (CoinGecko) [...] roughly doubled the privacy token in a month [...] Grayscale converted its Zcash Trust into an exchange-traded product, listed as ZCSH on NYSE Arca on Aug. 25 [...]…”

c22. Saylor’s reputation will take a hit, and Bitcoin’s weakness about “not being a productive asset” will gain steam again.

Saylor’s reputation will take a hit, and Bitcoin’s weakness about “not being a productive asset” will gain steam again.

Mike Ippolito, 2026-01-01, 27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)

Context: Post 12, second sentence. Michael Saylor / Strategy face reputational damage (e.g. stock underperformance, forced selling, index removal, widespread critical coverage) in 2026.

Strict ✗ not met
Saylor's reputation took a real hit in 2026: Strategy underperformed bitcoin, its premium to net asset value disappeared or it suffered an index setback, and major outlets ran critical coverage.
P(met) 0.38 · P(contradicted) 0.94 · evidence strength 1.71 of 2
Standard ✓ met
Strategy's premium to its bitcoin holdings compressed materially in 2026 and major outlets published critical coverage of Saylor's strategy.
P(met) 0.79 · P(contradicted) 0.07 · evidence strength 1.86 of 2
Lenient ✓ met
In 2026 either MSTR underperformed bitcoin or major outlets published critical coverage of Saylor and Strategy.
P(met) 0.68 · P(contradicted) 0.19 · evidence strength 1.84 of 2

T1contradicts [strict, lenient] · 2026-10-23 · Yahoo Finance chart API (MSTR daily closes): “Closing price on Dec 31, 2025: 151.95. Most recent close: 146.01 on October 23, 2026. [About -3.9% year to date versus bitcoin's roughly -8% (CoinGecko $80,480 vs $87,508.83), so MSTR has not underperformed bitcoin in 2…”
T2supports · 2026-05-08 · Fortune: “We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend just to inoculate the market. [Saylor on the earnings call, reversing his October stance You do not sell your Bitcoin.] Strategy's market capitalization skyrocketed…”
T2supports [standard, lenient] · 2026-05-19 · Yahoo Finance: “MSTR is down 58% over the past year [...] peaked near $540 in November 2024 and now trades near $166, which is a 70% drop. mNAV: 3.89x peak in November 2024; 1.91x by July 2025; 0.97x in November 2025, briefly below 1.0…”
T2supports [strict, standard] · 2026-06-28 · Stocktwits News: “Strategy's mNAV ratio dipped to 0.99, below 1 for the first time in its history [...] saw its market value slip below the worth of its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings for the first time ever. Bitcoin finished the week near $59,9…”