# Rubric review sheet: Mike Ippolito, 2026

20 selected claims, three bars each. Written before any evidence was gathered. Edit `rubrics.jsonl`, then rerun `check-rubrics` and `sheet`. A flag means the critic check put the bar under even odds of being a fair reading, or doubted it is checkable; it is a prompt to look, not a verdict.
Flags: 31 of 60 bars.


## c42. Mike Ippolito: 4-5 new chains will get announced, Blackrock is one of them.

> 4-5 new chains will get announced, Blackrock is one of them.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 1, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 24, split from c39. Four or five new corporate chains are announced in 2026, including one by BlackRock.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Four or five new corporate chains were announced in 2026, and one of them is BlackRock's. | Public announcements by the company or coverage in a major crypto outlet, dated 2026-01-01 to the run date. A corporate chain is a blockchain launched or branded by a non-crypto-native company or financial institution (Tempo, Arc and Robinhood Chain are 2025 examples and do not count as new). | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| **standard** ⚑ | At least four new corporate chains were announced in 2026. | Same counting rule; BlackRock not required. | 0.42 | 0.72 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | Several new corporate chains, read as at least three, were announced in 2026. | Same counting rule. | 0.40 | 0.68 |

Notes: The BlackRock clause is the bold specific, so it is required only at strict. 'Announced' means a public announcement of a chain, not a rumour. Standard and lenient drop the BlackRock clause by design; the critic check rates them near even odds for that reason.

## c29. Mike Ippolito: VCs will launch credit funds (which largely won't work), but real credit funds will become more active. They'll act as…

> VCs will launch credit funds (which largely won't work), but real credit funds will become more active. They'll act as liquidators for RWAs and vault managers, 2-3 Apollo size funds will make big pushes in.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 2, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 16. Two or three large traditional credit managers (Apollo-scale) make major onchain credit moves in 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | Two or three credit managers of Apollo's scale made big pushes into onchain credit in 2026. | Announcements by the firms or major-outlet reporting of tokenized credit funds, onchain lending commitments or vault-management roles by alternative credit managers with at least $100B of credit assets (Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, KKR, Blue Owl, Carlyle, Brookfield or peers), dated 2026. | 0.73 | 0.46 |
| **standard** | At least two large traditional credit managers made notable onchain credit moves in 2026. | Same, with 'large' read as a top-20 alternative credit manager. | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| **lenient** | At least one large traditional credit manager made a notable new onchain credit move in 2026. | Same; the move must be new in 2026, not a product that existed at the start of the year. | 0.68 | 0.61 |

Notes: The VC-credit-fund clause ('largely won't work') is not graded; the Apollo-size clause is the checkable part.

## c9. Mike Ippolito: We'll see real pain in venture capital. Unflattering performance will get reported in media outlets, many will struggle…

> We'll see real pain in venture capital. Unflattering performance will get reported in media outlets, many will struggle to raise and 2 blue chip funds will close.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 3, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 6. The checkable core is two blue-chip crypto VC funds closing (winding down or ceasing new investment) in 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Two blue-chip crypto venture firms closed in 2026, and reporting documented widespread fundraising pain across crypto VC. | Major-outlet reporting of two widely recognised top-tier crypto VC firms (historically $500M or more raised) announcing a wind-down or an end to new investments in 2026, plus reporting on fundraising difficulty. | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| **standard** | At least two recognised crypto venture firms wound down or stopped making new investments in 2026. | Major-outlet or trade-press reporting, dated 2026. | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | At least one recognised crypto venture firm wound down in 2026 and reporting described fundraising difficulty across crypto VC. | Same. | 0.39 | 0.79 |

Notes: 'Blue chip' is read as top-tier by capital raised; 'close' as winding down or ceasing new investments, not merely downsizing. Lenient halves his count; the critic check rates it near even odds, which is what a lenient bar on a count looks like.

## c25. Mike Ippolito: Ethereum will completely reverse sentiment and have its best year since 2021.

> Ethereum will completely reverse sentiment and have its best year since 2021.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 4, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 14, first sentence. ETH's 2026 performance (price and sentiment) is its best since 2021.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | 2026 is Ethereum's best year since 2021: ETH's return beats each of 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and sentiment flipped positive. | ETH/USD calendar-2026 return through the run date (CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) compared with each prior calendar-year return, plus major-outlet coverage describing a sentiment turn; provisional until December 31. | 0.80 | 0.55 |
| **standard** ⚑ | ETH's 2026 return beats its 2024 and 2025 returns. | ETH/USD calendar-2026 return through the run date (CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) versus the 2024 and 2025 calendar returns; sentiment coverage is context, not a condition; provisional. | 0.37 | 0.95 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | Ethereum had a clearly better year than 2025: ETH's 2026 return is positive and above its 2025 return. | ETH/USD 2026 return through the run date, positive and above the 2025 calendar return; provisional. | 0.38 | 0.94 |

Notes: 'Best year since 2021' is read literally at strict; standard asks for better than the last two years; lenient for outperformance of bitcoin plus a sentiment turn. An earlier lenient (outperformed bitcoin) was flagged as testing something the claim did not say.

## c26. Mike Ippolito: L1 will have a renaissance in 2026 and largely win the market for RWA issuance.

> L1 will have a renaissance in 2026 and largely win the market for RWA issuance.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 5, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 14, second sentence. Ethereum mainnet holds the majority of tokenized real-world asset value at end of 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | Ethereum mainnet largely won RWA issuance in 2026: it captured the majority of the tokenized real-world asset value added during the year and ended with a higher share than it started. | rwa.xyz tokenized asset value by chain, excluding stablecoins: mainnet's share of the 2026 net increase above 50%, and its share at the latest reading above its 2026-01-01 share; provisional. | 0.37 | 0.72 |
| **standard** ⚑ | Ethereum mainnet gained share of tokenized real-world assets in 2026 and remains the largest chain. | rwa.xyz by chain, excluding stablecoins: mainnet share at the latest reading above its 2026-01-01 share and the largest of any chain; provisional. | 0.21 | 0.79 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | Ethereum, counting mainnet and its L2s, held or gained share of tokenized real-world assets in 2026 and remains the largest ecosystem. | rwa.xyz by chain, excluding stablecoins, ecosystem share at the latest reading not below its 2026-01-01 share and the largest; provisional. | 0.27 | 0.75 |

Notes: 'L1' is read as Ethereum mainnet; lenient allows the whole Ethereum ecosystem. 'Renaissance' is not graded separately. The first draft asked only whether Ethereum was the largest RWA chain, which it already was when the prediction was made; the critic check flagged all three bars and they were rewritten around gaining share.

## c43. Mike Ippolito: Base will begin to come under some amount of scrutiny after having largely been assumed to win the L2 war in 2025. The…

> Base will begin to come under some amount of scrutiny after having largely been assumed to win the L2 war in 2025. The content coin push will fail, and there will be an existential crisis around not winning any category.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 6, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 25. Base faces criticism in 2026 and its content-coin initiative fails to gain traction.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | Base came under real scrutiny in 2026: its content-coin push failed, major outlets ran critical coverage of its strategy, and it lost its lead in at least one major L2 category. | Content-coin (Zora-style) volume on Base down at least 80% from its 2025 peak per Dune or reporting; two or more major crypto outlets with critical pieces dated 2026; L2Beat or DefiLlama showing Base no longer first among L2s in TVL, DEX volume or stablecoin supply at the latest reading. | 0.44 | 0.71 |
| **standard** ⚑ | Base's content-coin push faded sharply in 2026 and major outlets ran critical coverage of Base's strategy. | Dune or reporting on content-coin activity; at least one major crypto outlet with a critical piece dated 2026. | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| **lenient** | Base's content-coin push faded in 2026, with activity well below its 2025 peak. | Content-coin (Zora-style) daily volume or active posters on Base down at least 50% from the 2025 peak at the latest reading, per Dune or reporting. | 0.58 | 0.63 |

Notes: 'Existential crisis' is not gradable; the checkable parts are the content-coin outcome, critical coverage and category leadership.

## c38. Mike Ippolito: Infrastructure will go through massive consolidation. L2 frameworks, RaaS, shared sequencing, etc… all compress into on…

> Infrastructure will go through massive consolidation. L2 frameworks, RaaS, shared sequencing, etc… all compress into one category. These move from being thought of as ecosystems to CoSS, similar to Redhat. 2-3 vertically integrated solutions will emerge and do well.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 7, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 23. Consolidation (mergers, acquisitions, shutdowns) among L2 frameworks and rollup-as-a-service providers in 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | Infrastructure consolidated heavily in 2026: at least three mergers, acquisitions or shutdowns among L2 framework, rollup-as-a-service or shared-sequencing providers. | Company announcements or major-outlet reporting dated 2026. Reporting that names two or three vertically integrated providers as the survivors is supporting context. | 0.36 | 0.83 |
| **standard** ⚑ | At least two mergers, acquisitions or shutdowns among L2 framework, rollup-as-a-service or shared-sequencing providers in 2026. | Company announcements or major-outlet reporting dated 2026. | 0.33 | 0.90 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | At least one notable merger, acquisition or shutdown among such infrastructure providers in 2026. | Same. | 0.45 | 0.86 |

Notes: 'Massive consolidation' is given a count; the CoSS/Redhat analogy is not graded. Standard and lenient halve and third his implied count; recorded as ours.

## c34. Mike Ippolito: Passive liquidity provision in AMMs largely dies in 2026, first driven by the success of prop AMMs in Solana.

> Passive liquidity provision in AMMs largely dies in 2026, first driven by the success of prop AMMs in Solana.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 8, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 20, first sentence. Passive LP share of DEX volume falls sharply in 2026 as proprietary AMMs take share, starting on Solana.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Passive AMM liquidity provision largely died in 2026, led by Solana: proprietary AMMs carry most Solana DEX volume and passive LP share fell substantially across major chains. | Blockworks Research, Dune or DefiLlama DEX volume by venue type: prop AMMs (SolFi, ZeroFi, HumidiFi, Tessera and peers) above 50% of Solana DEX volume at the latest reading; passive-LP venues' share of DEX volume on Ethereum and Solana down materially during 2026. | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| **standard** ⚑ | Passive liquidity provision lost most of its share of Solana DEX volume in 2026. | Blockworks Research, Dune or DefiLlama: passive-pool venues (Raydium and Orca standard pools and peers) below 50% of Solana DEX volume at the latest reading, with proprietary AMMs taking the share; provisional. | 0.44 | 0.75 |
| **lenient** | Passive liquidity provision lost share of Solana DEX volume during 2026 and was described as in decline. | Passive-pool share at the latest reading below its 2026-01-01 share per data, plus at least one major crypto outlet or research note describing the decline. | 0.50 | 0.77 |

Notes: 'Largely dies' read as a majority-share flip at strict and standard, a direction at lenient. An earlier standard bar measured prop-AMM share directly; the critic check flagged it as testing the cause rather than the claim.

## c15. Mike Ippolito: Other CEXes will make inroads, Robinhood will continue to succed, Coinbase will fail.

> Other CEXes will make inroads, Robinhood will continue to succed, Coinbase will fail.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 9, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 9, second sentence. Checkable parts: Robinhood's prediction-market business grows; Coinbase's prediction-market effort does not gain traction.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | Robinhood's prediction markets kept succeeding in 2026 and Coinbase's failed. | Robinhood: company disclosures or earnings showing 2026 prediction-market contract volume above 2025's. Coinbase: its prediction-market product under 5% of US prediction-market volume at the latest reading, or discontinued, per Dune, The Block or major-outlet reporting; provisional. | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| **standard** ⚑ | Robinhood's prediction-market business grew in 2026 and Coinbase's did not gain meaningful traction. | Company disclosures and major-outlet reporting dated 2026. | 0.36 | 0.62 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | Coinbase's prediction-market effort did not become a meaningful competitor to Kalshi or Polymarket in 2026. | Coinbase prediction-market volume under 10% of US prediction-market volume at the latest reading, or major-outlet reporting describing it as lagging; provisional. | 0.36 | 0.49 |

Notes: 'Other CEXes will make inroads' is too vague to grade; Robinhood and Coinbase are the named, checkable parts.

## c35. Mike Ippolito: Solana will have a mini crisis around non-meme price discovery not happening on their chain, which will resolve by EOY

> Solana will have a mini crisis around non-meme price discovery not happening on their chain, which will resolve by EOY

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 10, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 20, second paragraph. A visible debate or crisis about Solana's role in non-memecoin price discovery during 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | Solana had a mini crisis in 2026 over non-meme price discovery not happening on its chain, and by year end a major non-memecoin asset launched and traded primarily on Solana. | Two or more major crypto outlets or prominent Solana figures debating the issue in 2026, and a non-memecoin token with a market cap above $500M launching in 2026 with most of its spot volume on Solana DEXes, per DefiLlama or CoinGecko; provisional. | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| **standard** ⚑ | A widely covered debate took place in 2026 about non-meme price discovery not happening on Solana. | Two or more major crypto outlets (CoinDesk, The Block, Blockworks, Decrypt) or named Solana Foundation, Anza or Jupiter leaders raising the issue publicly, dated 2026. | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | The concern that non-meme price discovery is not happening on Solana was raised publicly in 2026 by a prominent figure or outlet. | At least one major crypto outlet or prominent Solana figure, dated 2026. | 0.37 | 0.69 |

Notes: 'Mini crisis' is read as a widely covered debate.

## c11. Mike Ippolito: VC investment will be anemic. Expect a slightly diminished figure from 2025’s $25B, $12-$18B.

> VC investment will be anemic. Expect a slightly diminished figure from 2025’s $25B, $12-$18B.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 11, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 7. Total 2026 crypto venture investment lands between $12B and $18B, down from about $25B in 2025. Numeric; trackers differ (Galaxy, PitchBook, The Block, DefiLlama).

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | 2026 crypto venture investment comes in between $12B and $18B. | A major tracker (Galaxy Research, PitchBook, The Block, DefiLlama) full-year total when available; until then, quarterly 2026 totals annualised (year to date times 12 over months elapsed) falling inside the range; provisional. | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| **standard** | 2026 crypto venture investment is a diminished year: on pace for a total below 2025's roughly $25B but above $10B. | Same trackers, annualised; provisional. | 0.57 | 0.80 |
| **lenient** | 2026 crypto venture investment is on pace to come in below 2025's total. | Same trackers, annualised versus the tracker's own 2025 total; provisional. | 0.56 | 0.93 |

Notes: Trackers differ in methodology; compare within one tracker. He gave the range, so strict holds him to it.

## c13. Mike Ippolito: despite that volume will continue to climb. Expect 2X from this year’s levels.

> despite that volume will continue to climb. Expect 2X from this year’s levels.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 12, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 8, second part, split from c12. Prediction-market volume (Polymarket plus Kalshi) in 2026 is about double 2025's.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Prediction-market volume in 2026 is about double 2025's. | Combined Polymarket and Kalshi notional volume, 2026 year to date versus the same period of 2025 at or above 2.0x, or 2026 annualised at or above 2.0x full-year 2025, per Dune dashboards, The Block or company statements; provisional. | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| **standard** | Prediction-market volume in 2026 grew strongly, at least 1.5x 2025's. | Same data, ratio at or above 1.5x; provisional. | 0.56 | 0.76 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | Prediction-market volume grew strongly in 2026, by at least a third over 2025. | Combined Polymarket and Kalshi notional volume, 2026 year to date versus the same period of 2025 at or above 1.33x, or annualised at or above 1.33x full-year 2025; provisional. | 0.33 | 0.64 |

Notes: Split from c12. 'Expect 2X' is held at strict; standard allows strong growth short of doubling; lenient the direction. An earlier lenient ('on pace to exceed 2025') was flagged as too loose for a prediction of 2X.

## c33. Mike Ippolito: REV will bottom around mid 2026, and start recovering into year end.

> REV will bottom around mid 2026, and start recovering into year end.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 13, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 19, third paragraph. Solana's real economic value (fees plus tips) troughs around mid-2026 and rises in H2.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Solana REV bottomed around mid-2026 and has been recovering into year end. | Blockworks Research monthly Solana REV: the 2026 low falls in May to August, every later full month is above that low, and the latest full month is at least 25% above it; provisional. | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| **standard** | Solana REV reached its 2026 low around the middle of the year and has risen since. | Monthly REV low in April to September with the latest full month above it; provisional. | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | Solana REV has recovered from a trough at some point in 2026. | Latest full month of REV above the lowest month of 2026; provisional. | 0.46 | 0.77 |

Notes: 'Around mid 2026' read as May to August at strict and April to September at standard.

## c16. Mike Ippolito: No new startups will be successful, but some sports betting apps will.

> No new startups will be successful, but some sports betting apps will.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 14, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 9, third sentence. No new prediction-market startup reaches meaningful volume in 2026, while sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel) launch and gain traction.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | No new prediction-market startup succeeded in 2026, while at least one major sports-betting app did. | No prediction-market startup launched in 2025 or 2026 reached 5% of US prediction-market monthly volume at any point in 2026 per Dune or The Block; at least one major sportsbook (DraftKings, FanDuel or peer) launched prediction markets in 2026 and reported, or was reported to have, meaningful volume. | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| **standard** ⚑ | No new prediction-market startup broke into the top tier in 2026, and at least one major sportsbook launched prediction markets. | Top tier read as the top three US venues by monthly volume per Dune or The Block; sportsbook launch per company announcement or major-outlet reporting. | 0.20 | 0.58 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | No new prediction-market startup rivalled Kalshi or Polymarket in 2026, and at least one major sportsbook entered prediction markets. | No new venue above 10% of US prediction-market volume per data or reporting; sportsbook entry per announcement or reporting. | 0.33 | 0.69 |

Notes: The startup clause is a negative that needs volume data; the sportsbook clause is a clean binary. The first draft's lenient bar dropped the startup half of the claim; the critic check flagged it at 0.18 and it was rewritten.

## c20. Mike Ippolito: Despite the loud fanfare, equity perps will have a slow start in 2026 but will do better on CEX venues than DEXes. Expe…

> Despite the loud fanfare, equity perps will have a slow start in 2026 but will do better on CEX venues than DEXes. Expect <5% of perp volume by EOY.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 15, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 11. Tokenized-equity perpetuals are under 5% of total perp volume at end of 2026, with CEXes ahead of DEXes.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Equity perps had a slow 2026: under 5% of perp volume at year end, with centralized venues ahead of decentralized ones. | Tokenized-stock perpetual volume as a share of total crypto perpetual volume at the latest 2026 reading per The Block, Dune or venue reports, and CEX equity-perp volume above DEX equity-perp volume; provisional. | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| **standard** | Equity perps are under 5% of perp volume at the latest 2026 reading. | Same data; provisional. | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| **lenient** | Equity perps remained a small minority of perp volume in 2026, read as under 10%. | Same data; provisional. | 0.54 | 0.67 |

Notes: He gave the number (under 5%) and the venue ordering; strict needs both, standard the number, lenient a looser reading of 'slow start'.

## c30. Mike Ippolito: Vault AUM will grow but not an explosive amount from ~$5B today to $15-20B.

> Vault AUM will grow but not an explosive amount from ~$5B today to $15-20B.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 16, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 17. Onchain vault (asset-management) AUM ends 2026 at $15B to $20B, from about $5B at the start of the year.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Onchain vault AUM reached $15B to $20B in 2026. | DefiLlama vaults or Blockworks Research onchain asset-management AUM at the latest 2026 reading; provisional until December 31. | 0.59 | 0.83 |
| **standard** | Onchain vault AUM reached at least $12B in 2026, close to the bottom of his range. | DefiLlama vaults or Blockworks Research onchain asset-management AUM at the latest 2026 reading; provisional. | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| **lenient** | Onchain vault AUM grew meaningfully in 2026, read as at least 50% growth. | Same data, at least $7.5B at the latest reading; provisional. | 0.50 | 0.81 |

Notes: He gave the range; strict holds him to it. If the latest reading is above $20B the strict bar is also not met ('not an explosive amount').

## c37. Mike Ippolito: It’s another bad year for onchain infrastructure. Most general purpose L2s or alt L1s completely fail to attract any ne…

> It’s another bad year for onchain infrastructure. Most general purpose L2s or alt L1s completely fail to attract any new users or apps. Expect big pivots or changes in the business model from several large protocols by EOY.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 17, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 22. Several large infrastructure protocols announce pivots or business-model changes during 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | 2026 was another bad year for onchain infrastructure: at least three large protocols announced major pivots, and general-purpose chains broadly failed to grow their users. | Three or more general-purpose L2 or alt-L1 protocols with a peak market cap of $1B or more announcing a major pivot or business-model change in 2026, per announcements or major outlets; Artemis or Token Terminal showing median daily active addresses across the top 20 such chains lower at the latest reading than on 2026-01-01. | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| **standard** | At least two large infrastructure protocols announced major pivots or business-model changes in 2026. | Announcements or major-outlet reporting dated 2026. | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| **lenient** | At least one large infrastructure protocol announced a major pivot or business-model change in 2026. | Same. | 0.69 | 0.83 |

Notes: 'Several' read as three at strict and two at standard.

## c21. Mike Ippolito: It will be a bad year for Bitcoin sentiment, driven by outperformance in gold, quantum fears, and an overhang from DATs.

> It will be a bad year for Bitcoin sentiment, driven by outperformance in gold, quantum fears, and an overhang from DATs.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 18, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 12, first sentence. Bitcoin sentiment is poor in 2026; gold outperforms bitcoin over the year.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | 2026 was a bad year for Bitcoin sentiment: gold outperformed bitcoin, bitcoin is down for the year, and sentiment measures were predominantly negative. | Gold and BTC/USD 2026 returns through the run date; BTC/USD below its 2025 year-end price; Alternative.me Fear and Greed index averaging below 50 for the year or major-outlet coverage describing persistent negative sentiment; provisional. | 0.40 | 0.75 |
| **standard** | Gold outperformed bitcoin in 2026 and bitcoin sentiment was described as poor for much of the year. | Price data plus major-outlet coverage dated 2026; provisional. | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| **lenient** | Either gold outperformed bitcoin in 2026 or bitcoin spent most of 2026 below its end-2025 price. | Price data through the run date; provisional. | 0.63 | 0.94 |

Notes: 'Bad year for sentiment' is made measurable through relative performance and a sentiment index. The causes he lists (gold, quantum, DATs) are not graded. Strict combines three conditions he implied but did not state; recorded as ours.

## c45. Mike Ippolito: Most existing solutions will not do well, ZEC was a one off and will have a bad 2026.

> Most existing solutions will not do well, ZEC was a one off and will have a bad 2026.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 19, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 26, second part, split from c44. Zcash (ZEC) underperforms in 2026 after its late-2025 rally.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** ⚑ | ZEC had a bad 2026: down for the year and worse than bitcoin. | ZEC/USD 2026 return through the run date negative and below BTC/USD's, per CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap; provisional. | 0.41 | 0.94 |
| **standard** ⚑ | ZEC is down for 2026. | ZEC/USD 2026 return through the run date negative; provisional. | 0.41 | 0.70 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | ZEC fell well below its late-2025 peak during 2026. | ZEC/USD at the latest reading at least 30% below its late-2025 high; provisional. | 0.43 | 0.94 |

Notes: Split from c44. 'ZEC was a one off' is the thesis; the bars grade the price outcome. The critic check rates all three bars near 0.4; 'bad 2026' has no cleaner reading than price.

## c22. Mike Ippolito: Saylor’s reputation will take a hit, and Bitcoin’s weakness about “not being a productive asset” will gain steam again.

> Saylor’s reputation will take a hit, and Bitcoin’s weakness about “not being a productive asset” will gain steam again.

2026-01-01, [27 predictions for 2026 (X thread)](https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/2006813164768571857). Rank 20, spectrum, horizon 2026-12-31. Post 12, second sentence. Michael Saylor / Strategy face reputational damage (e.g. stock underperformance, forced selling, index removal, widespread critical coverage) in 2026.

| Bar | What counts | How we look | Critic | Checkable |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| **strict** | Saylor's reputation took a real hit in 2026: Strategy underperformed bitcoin, its premium to net asset value disappeared or it suffered an index setback, and major outlets ran critical coverage. | MSTR versus BTC/USD 2026 returns through the run date; mNAV below 1.0 or an index removal or rejection per reporting; two or more major outlets with critical pieces dated 2026; provisional. | 0.51 | 0.76 |
| **standard** | Strategy's premium to its bitcoin holdings compressed materially in 2026 and major outlets published critical coverage of Saylor's strategy. | mNAV data (Strategy's own dashboard or trackers) and at least one major outlet dated 2026; provisional. | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| **lenient** ⚑ | In 2026 either MSTR underperformed bitcoin or major outlets published critical coverage of Saylor and Strategy. | Price data or major-outlet coverage dated 2026; provisional. | 0.47 | 0.76 |

Notes: The 'not a productive asset' clause is discourse and is not graded separately.