called-it · Mike Ippolito · 2026 · graded 2026-10-24 · jev-1.14.0
Mike Ippolito: 2026 predictions, graded
- 20 claims graded at three bars against evidence from 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-24.
- Strict is what a hostile critic would require. Lenient is the weakest reading a critic would still concede.
- The gap between them is how much the grade depends on who is grading.
- Everything here is provisional until the year ends.
Strict
10%
2 met · 11 not met · 7 unresolved
Standard
35%
7 met · 4 not met · 9 unresolved
Lenient
45%
9 met · 2 not met · 9 unresolved
Generosity gap
35 pts
lenient minus strict
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The game: find the predictor, quote their original post with the card and a one-line overview. The text below is a draft; edit it.
You can view the data in a variety of ways
Full scorecardevery claim, bar and evidence row
The barsas written before any evidence (review sheet)
Workbook (.xlsx)claims, bars, grades and evidence on sheets
data.jsoneverything the scorecard was built from
claims.csvone row per claim
grades.csvone row per claim and bar
evidence.csvone row per dated, tiered quote
Self-review draftthe thread they could post, one line per claim
